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Length: 6:38
ANDERSON COOPER: Well,
Michael Ware joins us now from Baghdad. And here in
New York, CNN Terrorism Analyst Peter Bergen.
Peter, you know, we heard these statements from
insurgents and from their supporters. Obviously it is
propaganda, but do you think they really believe that
this -- Rumsfeld stepping down, the election results
in the United States are a victory for them?
PETER BERGEN, CNN TERRORISM ANALYST: Well, I mean, if
they believe it, I think they're going to be wrong. I
mean, I don't think Robert Gates is going to be very
different than Donald Rumsfeld. You have the
Baker-Hamilton commission, will make some adjustments
to what's happening in Iraq, talk to Iran, talk to
Syria. But I mean, there's not going to be a total
withdrawal. They're not the sort of things that the
insurgents would really regard as a real victory.
COOPER: Michael, in Iraq, you know, there's been a
lot of talk over here about dropping support for
democracy or dropping the emphasis on democracy in
Iraq, trying to focus more on stability, supporting a
strong man to try to bring some kind of order. Is
that being discussed among, you know, people you are
talking to in Iraq, in Baghdad?
MICHAEL WARE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, it's actually
been something that has bubbled away under the
surface as a notion here for almost two years now
that the alternatives for Iraq are a slide into some
distinctly Iraqi kind of neo-Islamic state with the
western deserts of Anbar home to a desert al Qaeda
training camp. Or the alternative, what some have
argued, particularly from British and to a lesser
degree Australian allies, is that what may emerge is
less of a vision of democracy than had originally
been put in place, that perhaps the best case
scenario for American or international interests was
the emergence of a strong man, akin to President
Musharraf in Pakistan, where there's a strong leader
with quasi-democratic trappings and a parliament of
some sort, be it powerless or not. But certainly
that's been a proposal that's been floating around
and there's a lot more talk about it now, Anderson.
COOPER: What ability though, Michael, does the U.S.
really have to effect that kind of government change
on the ground? I mean, we put so much on these Iraqi
elections, letting Iraqi people decide who they want
to lead. They have this leader al-Maliki now. Can the
U.S. just get rid of him?
WARE: Well, it wouldn't be quite as simple as that.
It would certainly require something dramatic to turn
the ship around, so to speak, that we see plowing
forward in the moment. Certainly, the U.S.
politically has invested all its eggs in the Maliki
basket. And be aware that this prime minister in Iraq
is relatively powerless. The powerful militia
factions that actually comprise his government, you
know, he needs to work against. And the only thing
he's got going for him is American support.
Alternatively, he's had the sponsorship or the
political support from the Madhi Army militia. So
it's either America or one of the most powerful
militias. That's very difficult to change overnight,
Anderson.
COOPER: Peter, do you expect some sort of tape from
Osama bin Laden or his right-hand man talking about
the results of the U.S. election?
BERGEN: Actually, that's a very interesting question.
I would expect that Ayman al-Zawahiri might be
preparing a tape now. We've had 14 videotapes from
him this year. He's been speaking on almost every
news event, trying to remain relevant.
Strangely, we haven't heard anything from bin Laden
for some period of time. You would have thought that
he'd want to comment on the Lebanon experience with
the Israeli incursion there or the fifth anniversary
of 9/11. And so far there's been silence. What to
make of that, I don't know.
COOPER: But they are still trying to say relevant? I
mean, that is a concern of theirs?
BERGEN: Yes, I think so. I mean, at this point, Ayman
al- Zawahiri's releasing so many tapes that they're
almost not newsworthy. You know, if bin Laden
released something, that would be a big news event.
COOPER: You know, Michael, Iraq's President Jalal
Talabani, said that he had been assured by Democratic
leaders they will continue support the Iraqi
government. Have you spoken to any Iraqis who worry
about a U.S. pullout?
I mean, Aneesh Raman was reporting, you know, a lot
of people in Iraqis seem to sort of theoretically
want the U.S. -- what they call the occupation to
end. But at the same time they don't want the U.S. to
pull out right away and all hell to break loose even
more than it already has.
WARE: Yes. I find by and large that Iraqi popular
thought is torn between emotion and between
pragmatism. I mean, what we see is at their essence,
Iraqis want Iraq for Iraqis. They want to see an end
to the occupation. They want to see an end to foreign
control of any kind.
So yes, at first blush, the instinct is for American
troops to leave. Nonetheless, they remain so
apprehensive, so concerned about what may follow an
American withdrawal, particularly a rapid American
withdrawal, that that curbs that sense of wanting to
oust the Americans immediately. It's a great
conflict. And within the Iraqi government, they're
trying to thread a fine line between maintaining
independence in the eyes of their people and
maintaining a good relationship with the U.S. Indeed,
one of the members of the parliament here yesterday
was just saying that it is very difficult -- "We're
worried about Iranian penetration becoming such a
problem that it alters the support of the U.S."
COOPER: Peter, you have been watching -- we traveled
together in Afghanistan and the eastern part of
Afghanistan. What's been happening there in the last
couple weeks and month or so? I mean, is the battle
still as brutal as it was a month ago?
BERGEN: I think it's sort of arguably worse. I mean,
we've had now 83 suicide attacks in Afghanistan.
COOPER: 83?
BERGEN: And when we were there, I think number was
something like 65. So, you know, it has gone through
the roof. It is exponentially rising, the problem in
Afghanistan. You may remember there was a peace
agreement in the tribal areas that Pakistan did with
some of the militants. That turned out to be a
disaster, there've been more attacks from that
area...
COOPER: Has Pakistan acknowledged that it is not
working?
BERGEN: Well, they just had this big attack where,
you know, the suicide attack, where 42 Pakistani
soldiers were killed. Obviously, it is not working
right in that area.
So -- and also an interesting poll came out today,
Anderson, 44 percent of Afghans now think the country
is going in the right direction. That's down from 75
percent about a year ago. So a lot of discontent. The
suicide attacks are up. The Taliban remains
resurgent.
COOPER: Incredible.
Peter, appreciate it.
Michael Ware, appreciate it as well. Thank
you.