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WOLF BLITZER: Iraqi
police say another 186 bodies have been found in the
streets of Baghdad, apparent victims of sectarian
violence.
After three years, has the war in Iraq become a civil
war?
Let's turn now to someone who's been covering this
war since it began. Joining us now live from Baghdad
is Michael Ware, the Baghdad bureau chief of our
sister publication, "TIME" magazine.
Michael, thanks very much for joining us.
Ayad Allawi, the former interim prime minister, says,
you know what? A civil war is now under way already,
no ifs, ands or buts about it.
You're there on the scene. What do you see?
MICHAEL WARE, BAGHDAD BUREAU CHIEF, "TIME" MAGAZINE":
Well, I'd have to tell you, Wolf, many Iraqis would
agree with him. In fact, many of them do. They tell
me this daily. I mean, let's look at it.
There are dozens of bodies that are showing up on the
streets and in the morgue every day. And it's been
this way for over a year.
Another indicator is, let's have a look at the Al
Qaeda in Iraq group of terrorist leader Abu Musab
al-Zarqawi. In July last year, he felt there was
enough public support amongst his constituency to
publicly announce the creation of a Sunni death squad
brigade.
So, many people believe that we have been in an
undeclared, covert civil war for a long, long time
now. And what we're seeing is it escalate.
U.S. military intelligence disagrees. They say that
the violence has not yet found its own momentum, it
still requires prodding from people like Zarqawi. And
until that changes, this is not actually civil war.
BLITZER: Listen to what General George Casey, the
U.S. military commander in Iraq, told me yesterday.
Michael, listen to this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEN. GEORGE CASEY, U.S. ARMY: I do not believe that
civil war in Iraq, one, has started. And then, two,
nor is it imminent or inevitable.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BLITZER: Is it a matter of semantics? Because
everyone agrees the sectarian violence has escalated,
but there's a lot of resistance to calling this a
civil war.
WARE: Well, that plays directly, Wolf, into the
propaganda game that all sides have been following in
this war. I mean, that's a certain symbolic term.
It's a real trigger for this to be declared a civil
war. I mean, that bears heavily on the state of the
U.S. mission.
I mean, the fine details of the formula to be applied
to determine civil war belongs in a political science
class. But it's certainly true that a lot of people
are dying here in Iraq every day for sectarian
reasons.
When there is enough dying for whatever reason to
make a civil war, that's hard to say. But for many
people here on the ground, it feels like one,
particularly given that right now, as I stand here in
a darkened capital, there are death squads out there
roaming the streets.
BLITZER: The president and top Bush administration
officials say the U.S. will step down in Iraq as
Iraqi troops step up and are ready to take over. Are
you seeing tangible signs that the Iraqi military and
police forces are getting ready to take over in order
to enable U.S. troops to withdraw?
WARE: There are signs of steps forward. In some
cases, it's one step forward, two steps back.
We're seeing more and more areas of Iraq battle space
being given to Iraqi army units and Iraqi police
units. However, even the Iraqi commanders will tell
you, we cannot hold this ground without the massive
support and infrastructure of the U.S. military.
So whilst they can maintain a certain veneer of
control, they really cannot do it on their own. When
the time comes that they can, that's really, really
hard to say right now. And there's no pulling out for
U.S. forces now. In for a penny, in for a pound.
If they stay, that perpetuates the anti-American
support for the insurgency. If they leave, it just
leaves the door open for the terrorists and those
militias backed by Iran.
BLITZER: Well, what are the consequences? Elaborate a
little on a quick U.S. withdrawal.
WARE: What we would see is a descent into absolute
chaos. We would see real conflict. Civil war perhaps
on a grander scale with real regional implications.
You would see Iran making a play, Turkey, Syria,
perhaps even Jordan and others. This would provide
the chaos that allows al Qaeda to thrive. In some
parts of this country that would not be under Shia or
Kurdish control, we would see al Qaeda and other
terrorist camps flourish.
At the same time, we would see the consolidation of
Iranian influence -- a stated member of what
President Bush called the axis of evil -- here in
Iraq. It is definitely a failure for the U.S. mission
if that situation occurs, and that is almost
certainly inevitable if there was a quick and rapid
withdrawal -- Wolf.
BLITZER: You've done excellent reporting on the
insurgency. Is it your sense the insurgency is
getting stronger, or is it getting weaker?
WARE: Look, one of the things about this insurgency,
one of its most significant characteristics, is its
enduring quality, its ability to regenerate. No one
from military intelligence to Iraqi commanders
disputes the fact that since the early stages of this
insurgency, until now, they are able to put as many
as 15,000 to 20,000 fighters in the field on any
given day. That hasn't changed.
As quickly as insurgents are arrested or killed, they
seem able to regenerate, to recruit again, or to
import. That's from rank and file all the way up to
top leaders.
BLITZER: Michael Ware is back in Baghdad.
Be careful over there, Michael. We'll speak early and
often. Appreciate your work. Thanks very much for
joining us.