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ANDERSON COOPER: Tonight,
on a Web site, al Qaeda claimed responsibility for
the attempted suicide bombing of a major oil refinery
complex in eastern Saudi Arabia. Two cars packed with
explosives tried and failed to get through the gates
and destroy a facility through which flows about
two-thirds of the country's oil for export.
With us now, Peter Bergman, CNN terrorist analyst and
author of "The Osama bin Laden I Know."
Peter, how does this attempted suicide bombing fit
into al Qaeda's broader strategy?
PETER BERGEN, CNN TERRORISM ANALYST: Well, you know,
Osama bin Laden has specifically called for attacks
on Saudi and Iraqi oil facilities.
We have seen a lot of attacks on Iraqi oil
facilities. And now we have seen an attack on a Saudi
oil facility.
You may remember also, Anderson, that they're have
been attacks on oil workers in the kingdom. So, this
is something they want to do. They want to jack up
the price of oil. They want to damage our economy.
They want to damage the Saudi kingdom. And these
kinds of attacks do all those things.
COOPER: In a government which has such control as
Saudi Arabia, how is it possible that these kind of
things can happen? I mean, this is a pretty
repressive government.
BERGEN: Well, the Saudi government has actually done
quite a good job of cracking down on al Qaeda in the
post-May 2003 era, when there was attacks started in
Riyadh, against the Saudi establishment, against
Western residential sites.
And they have arrested something like 800 people.
They have killed maybe 100 militants. And, actually,
it has been quite quiet in Saudi Arabia. We haven't
seen much activity from al Qaeda in the past year or
so.
So, you know, eventually, they're going to get one
through. It doesn't take a huge number of people to
organize these kinds of attacks.
COOPER: Peter, stick around. We are going to get back
to you in just a moment.
We want to move to Iraq, where unlike Waveland, the
destruction is entirely manmade. Right about now,
people in Baghdad are beginning to wake up to another
day under a curfew, a daytime curfew. This as
political and religious leaders try to head off a
civil war between Sunni and Shia Muslims, and others
keep trying to start one.
More than 132 people have died in sectarian violence
since jihadis blew up the Shia shrine in Samarra on
Wednesday.
Today, President Bush weighed in.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: This
senseless attack is an affront to people of faith
throughout the world.
The United States strongly condemns this cowardly act
of terror and the subsequent attacks on other mosques
and holy sites in Iraq. We will do everything in our
power to help the Iraqi government identify and bring
to justice those responsible for the terrorist acts.
This is a moment of choosing for the Iraqi people.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COOPER: "A moment of choosing for the Iraqi people."
For the most part, today, it was quiet, though gunmen
fired rockets at a Shia burial ground south of
Baghdad. But quiet is not the same as calm. So even
as clerics on both sides of the divide, Sunni and
Shia, are preaching caution, their militias, their
armed militias -- because in Iraq, clerics do have
militias -- they are getting ready for the worst.
Reporting on that tonight, here's CNN's Aneesh Raman.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ANEESH RAMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Clad in
black, guns raised, these are the men who many say
could bring civil war to Iraq. Unemployed, young,
they're the followers of anti-American Shia cleric
Muqtada al-Sadr.
PROFESSOR JUAN COLE, MIDDLE EAST ANALYST, UNIVERSITY
OF MICHIGAN: The Mahdi militia is drawn mainly from,
yet, ghetto youth.
RAMAN: Impoverished Shia youth born into a desperate
situation, often looking for a fight, whether against
the Americans, who they clashed with in 2004, killing
nearly a dozen U.S. forces in the process, or against
the rival Shia militia, the Badr Brigade, who they
have battled repeatedly in the Shia south. They are,
says an expert in the Middle East, committed.
COLE: The puritanism of the Muqtada al-Sadr movement
gives them something to do in life. Certainly, the
Iraqi economy is a mess.
RAMAN: Based in the slums of Sadr City, where the
Iraqi security forces rarely go, the Mahdi militia
has, up to now, not launched all-out war on the
Sunnis, in large part because they have been told not
to by Sadr and by the country's Shia spiritual
leader, the Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, who have,
up until now, told the Mahdi militia to show
restraint.
But that is no longer the case. Wednesday's attack
enraged the Shia and set the Mahdi militia on the
attack against their Sunni foes. And now the question
is, are they beyond control, out of control, the
force that could push Iraq into a civil war?
(END VIDEOTAPE)
COOPER: Aneesh Raman joins us now.
And, Aneesh, stay with us. We want to bring back in
Peter Bergen, and also "TIME" magazine's Michael
Ware, for a conversation on what exactly is going on.
Michael, is this what the insurgency has wanted all
along, the brink of a full-blown sectarian war?
MICHAEL WARE, BAGHDAD BUREAU CHIEF, "TIME": Well,
Anderson, this is what one particular part of the
insurgency has wanted, that is, the al Qaeda element,
driven by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.
From the very beginning, even with differences to
Osama bin Laden, he has tried to bring on this
sectarian war. However, the bulk of the insurgency --
the Baathists, the former Iraqi military -- this is
not what they are seeking, and this is not something
that I think that they believe they can gain from.
The only winners from this would be al Qaeda.
COOPER: Aneesh, imposing a daytime curfew has kept
tensions at a low today. But, I mean, long term, what
is the strategy for a cease-fire?
RAMAN: Well, Anderson, there's none at the moment.
These extraordinary daytime curfew are quick fixes.
They keep the sectarian tensions off the streets.
They do not resolve them. Politically, there are
battles among leaders, in terms of how to deal with
this situation. The Shia leaders have called for
calm, but they have also called for continued
protests. They have stopped short of condemning the
reprisal attacks against the Sunnis.
So, at best, this has set Iraq back months, in terms
of bridging sectarian divides. At worst, of course,
the violence will still escalate -- Anderson.
COOPER: Peter, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice
said today, "I do think there is concern that the
sectarian tensions that outsiders are stoking in Iraq
might try to stoke sectarian tensions in other parts
of the region."
How realistic is that scenario?
BERGEN: Well, I think it's quite realistic.
I mean, we have already seen a kind of low-grade
civil war in Pakistan between the Shia and Sunnis,
which has going beyond -- going on for years. We have
got hundreds of people dying in Pakistan in these
kinds of communal violence.
And the fact that these Shia sites, the holiest sites
of all are in Iraq, and they're being attacked, I
think is going to resonate around the Shia world. And
a -- you know, the oil attack we just referred to
earlier in Saudi Arabia, of course, is in a largely
Shia area.
All the important oil facilities in Saudi are
basically in Shia- dominated areas, in the east of
Saudi Arabia. If it did spill over into a regional
problem, we have got a very large problem, not just a
huge problem in Iraq, but also around the region.
COOPER: Michael, if it turns out that Abu Musab
al-Zarqawi was behind the initial attack, does that
drive a further wedge between the insurgents and al
Qaeda, or is that just wishful thinking?
WARE: Well, it could play into that. It could very
much be a factor.
I mean, the Baathists, for them, this is very much a
political fight. They cloak themselves in nationalist
garb. And we have seen in the past, in fact,
particularly during the heady days of the conflict in
2004, where we saw the Baathist insurgents
cooperating and sharing technology and know-how with
the Shia militia of Muqtada al-Sadr.
So, there has been common ground there before against
a common enemy, being the U.S. forces. So, this could
play into that divide. I mean, this is what Zarqawi
has been screaming for. And this is what the old
guard of al Qaeda has been telling him to calm down,
to pull away from this brink. Clearly, he has no
intention of doing that.
COOPER: Aneesh, a "Wall Street Journal" editorial
suggests, the recent fighting might actually help
Iraq in the long run, and they said -- and I quote --
"It could equally be that this week's glimpse of hell
will be the medicine that pushes Iraq away from the
brink, and the best revenge isn't further violence,
but a successful government that progressively and
permanently marginalizes those who have done them
harm."
Could this, ultimately, lead everyday Iraqis to rise
up against this violence that they really,
heretofore, haven't risen up against?
RAMAN: Well, it could.
But given what we have seen over the past few years,
in all likelihood, it won't. The divides here are
deepening on a daily basis. These are viscerally
emotional outbursts by the Shia and by the Sunnis,
not wholly rationally thought out.
And, so, if Iraq is able to keep itself from going
off that cliff into all-out civil war, what happened
on Wednesday in the reprisal attacks against Sunnis,
those issues will simply go on the back-burner. They
can be reignited at any moment. Between Tuesday and
Wednesday, this country completely changed. And that
can happen again.
COOPER: Aneesh Raman, please stay safe.
Peter Bergen, thank you.
And Michael Ware, from "TIME" magazine, as always,
thanks for talking, Michael.