Length: 7:50
LARGE (91.7 MB)
-----
SMALL (9.1 MB)
JOHN KING: Now Iraq and a
call to start bringing the troops home by Christmas.
That's what a top Senate Republican says he wants.
Good news, if it happens, for thousands of American
families, but also a sign of very bad news for the
mission.
That's because he wants them home to send a message,
to serve as a kick in the pants to the Iraqi
government, which Senator Warner believes cannot get
its act together. He's not alone in that conclusion;
the latest National Intelligence Estimate backs him
up.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
KING (voice-over): In a word, the latest U.S.
intelligence assessment of Iraq is bleak. So downbeat
a leading Senate Republican just back from Iraq
called on President Bush to quickly announce a modest
troop withdrawal.
SEN. JOHN WARNER (D), VIRGINIA: Certainly in 160,000
plus, say 5,000 could begin to redeploy and be home
to their families and loved ones no later than
Christmas of this year.
KING: At issue is the new National Intelligence
Estimate on prospects for Iraq's stability. This
unclassified summary distributed on Capitol Hill
cites some security improvements since the last
assessment in January but says, "the level of overall
violence, including attacks on and casualties among
civilians, remains high. Iraq's sectarian groups
remain unreconciled."
Among its sober finding, al Qaeda in Iraq "retains
the ability to conduct high profile attacks," Iraq's
government will become "more precarious over the next
6 to 12 months," and Iraqi security forces "have not
improved enough to conduct major operations
independent of the Coalition."
Democrats for months have been demanding Mr. Bush
start bringing troops home. And to them the
intelligence estimate was fresh ammunition. "Further
pursuit of the administration's flawed escalation
strategy is not in our nation's best interest," is
how Senator Majority Leader Harry Reid put it.
Reid urged more Republicans to join Democrats in
demanding troop withdrawals, and Senator Warner's
assessment made increased pressure on the White House
all but certain.
The Virginia Republican was careful to say the
president and the president alone should decide how
many troops and how fast, but he also was emphatic in
the view that bringing troops home is the only way to
force Iraq's government to do more.
WARNER: We simply cannot, as a nation, stand and put
our troops at continuous risk of loss of life and
limb without beginning to take some decisive action
which will get everybody's attention.
KING: The president is vacationing in Crawford,
Texas, where the White House said Mr. Bush respects
Senator Warner but will base troop levels on Pentagon
recommendations due next month.
GORDON JOHNDROE, NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL SPOKESMAN:
I just think it's important that we wait right now to
hear from the commanders on the ground about the way
ahead.
KING: The new assessment did give the White House
some ammunition in the debate over bringing troops
home or pulling them back from Iraq's most volatile
neighborhoods, suggesting "changing the mission of
Coalition forces would erode security gains achieved
thus far."
But its sharp criticism of Iraq's government also
emboldened those in Congress who think Prime Minister
Nuri al-Maliki should be forced out.
The White House says Mr. Bush stands by the prime
minister and that those decisions are best left to
the Iraqi people.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
KING: That's the sober backdrop. Now the implications
for that. We turn to CNN's Michael Ware in Baghdad.
Michael, let's start with Senator Warner's call to
bring some troops home. Essentially shock therapy. He
says you need to shock the Iraqis into stepping up.
Any chance it would work?
MICHAEL WARE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Absolutely not,
John. I mean, with respect to Senator Warner, I mean,
he's dreaming if he thinks that by pulling U.S.
troops out, that in any way that's going to prod the
Iraqi government.
In fact, what that would do is spur this so-called
government. Indeed, this government is not a
government at all. This is a loose coalition of
largely Iranian-backed militia.
And as the National Intelligence Estimate report
clearly shows, what's really going on right now is
that everyone is jockeying for position in the
expectation that American troops are going to draw
down. Everyone's planning on what they're going to do
once America leaves. And honestly, none of it's
pretty, and none of it is going to serve U.S.
interests.
So pulling a few thousand troops out is just going to
be a signal to all these militias to keep the
pressure up on America. And, as the report says, it's
going to be a clear message to Iran to keep the foot
on the accelerator and maximize its advantage during
this crisis of American foreign policy.
KING: Let's follow up a little bit more on the
political situation. The NIE, the National
Intelligence Estimate, is very down on Prime Minister
Maliki and the prospects of him getting the
government's act together. It says his split with the
Sadrists is growing.
Yet the report says essentially that it's banking on
Shiite leaders to recognize that searching for any
alternative would paralyze the government. A safe
bet?
WARE: That's true. That's absolutely true. The NIE
makes a searingly frank report of what's actually
happening here. I mean, you have to respect what the
intelligence chiefs have done. They've really laid it
bare.
But the problem is that this government cannot
deliver on any of the things that America wants. And
to be honest, large factions of it have no desire or
interest to deliver on what America wants.
So this intelligence estimate and its perception, its
view of this Iraqi government is searingly accurate,
John.
KING: And so, Michael, amid all the pressure on the
Maliki government and amid some calls here by senior
lawmakers in the United States that he should step
down or be forced out. There's word a high-powered
U.S. lobbying firm is helping a former prime
minister, Ayad Allawi.
How is that going down in a country where I would
suspect many people are already tired enough of what
they consider too much U.S. interference?
WARE: Well, a lot of people are looking for change. I
mean, everybody knows that Prime Minister Maliki is
really, in essence, a lame duck.
This is a man who's leading a government where the
currency of political power is the size of your
militia. How many men at arms do you command? And he
has no militia at all.
So he has very little authority over his own
government. Indeed, one very senior U.S. source said
that, of his 37 cabinet ministers, there's only
actually three that Maliki can count on.
So to hear that one of the contenders, former prime
minister Ayad Allawi, America's closest political
ally in this country and a long-term intelligence
asset, has engaged the services of a Republican
lobbying firm to boost his chance in the eyes of
members of Congress, in some sense really isn't a
surprise.
I mean, Iran is preparing its candidates. So it
doesn't surprise me that former Prime Minister
Allawi, using money that I'm sure he's been garnering
from here in the region, from America's Arab allies
like Saudi Arabia, is working to undermine Maliki, to
press the case for change.
And as we revealed on CNN, there's even American
frontline U.S. generals who believe that this
government should just be wiped away by either
constitutional or non-constitutional means, and for
the short to medium-term at least, these American
generals don't believe that a democracy is necessary
to replace it, and perhaps it's best that one doesn't
for now.
KING: A sober assessment to say the least. Michael
Ware in Baghdad. Michael, thank you very
much.