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Length: 6:31
TOM FOREMAN: The U.S.
Congress and the Iraqi parliament are taking the
month off but that isn't stopping the speculation
about what may happen in September when General
Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crawford issue their
much-anticipated progress report on Iraq. Will there
be any significant movement toward political
reconciliation by then?
In Baghdad, CNN's Michael Ware is standing by and
with me here Rend al-Rahim. She served as Iraq's
acting ambassador to the United States under the
country's first interim government. She's also a
senior fellow at the United States Institute of
Peace. Let me start with you here in the studio.
There's been much scorn here about the Iraqi
parliament taking the time off. Does it really make a
difference in terms of solving the political problems
there?
REND AL-RAHIM, FMR. IRAQI AMBASSADOR TO THE U.S.:
Absolutely not, Tom. The fact is they were supposed
to take July off. They did not. They stayed, but they
weren't able to achieve anything because the
decisions they have to make and the legislation they
have to pass are political issues that have to be
determined by political leaderships and not just by
votes in parliament. So the fact that they're not
there doesn't make very much difference to political
progress in Iraq.
FOREMAN: So it's sort of like our Congress here. The
deals are actually made in offices and hallways. By
the time it gets to the vote, everybody knows what's
been done.
AL-RAHIM: Indeed that's true. And in fact I would say
the deals are made outside of parliament by political
leaders who may not be part of the parliamentary
process. Having said that, we should also remember
that parliament has said that they were on standby as
it were if anything urgent comes up but that is
meaningless. The fact is the issues are much deeper
than parliament right now. They are on a national
scale. They're on a political scale and they're not
just an issue of this legislation or that
legislation.
FOREMAN: All right. Michael, is there any sense in
the street then that these issues, these deeper
issues are being addressed while parliament is out?
MICHAEL WARE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: No, not really. I
mean, I'm sure there is some discussion behind the
scenes but let's face reality. These are American
benchmarks. They're not Iraqi benchmarks. The Iraqis
view this very, very differently and indeed, on many
of the issues that the Americans are expecting
success or demanding success on, the Iraqis don't
share American interests here or Iraqi end states.
De-Baathification? I'm sorry, this government is just
not even vaguely interested in it. Dividing up the
oil evenly, that's going to be a hard sell at the
best of times. There's a lot of stuff that has to be
sorted out and it's not going to be to an American
timetable.
FOREMAN: Rend al-Rahim, here is what I don't
understand about that, though. Not settling the
issues brings continuing battle upon the country of
Iraq. Do not the Iraqi people see that and say,
"whether we want to or not we must settle this?"
AL-RAHIM: Yes, but what we're talking about is
specific legislation as Michael Ware has said, about
the oil, about de-Baathification. There are deep
divisions inside the country about the utility of
these laws and how to approach those laws, and the
divisions are not just about the framing of the laws
or the phrasing but about what kind of Iraq you need
to see. What are the relationships within Iraq of the
central government and the federated regions or the
other regions? What is the power sharing relationship
between the different communities of Iraq? Those are
what is going to determine these laws and how we pass
those laws rather than simple phrasing or articles in
those laws.
FOREMAN: If they can't work that out, however, it
would seem from this shore that they're opting for
civil war, that that's what they want. Is that the
truth?
AL-RAHIM: No, absolutely not. In fact, everybody is
not only against civil war, but everybody says there
is no civil war and I would actually say that
sectarian conflict has dropped somewhat in the last
few months. I know this is a contentious issue but I
have just been in Baghdad and my sense is that
sectarian fighting has certainly abated in the
country. So on a sectarian level, the temperature is
lower and nobody but nobody is interested either in
civil war or in partitioning Iraq, but they just
don't know how to move forward on these very
important issues.
FOREMAN: There's a sense in the latest polls here and
I want to look at these quickly, "USA Today"/Gallup
poll, that Americans think the surge overall is
getting better. Back in July they thought the surge
-- making it better, only 22 percent thought that,
now about 31 percent. The surge, back in July people
said not making much of a difference, 51 percent, now
41 percent. The surge making things worse, people
said it was about 25, now about 24. That hasn't
changed much. Michael, there is a sense of hope
certainly among some Americans that maybe it can get
better, but what do you think is going to move people
off the dime here and make them work out these
differences?
WARE: Well, nothing really is going to make them come
to these decisions at a western behest and let's look
at it. Yes, there are some of these successes but why
are they happening? Well, a lot of the west of Iraq
has dampened its levels of violence because the
Americans have done a deal with the Sunni Baath
insurgency and unleashed them on al Qaeda. This also
is proving politically to be a handy balance against
what the Americans see as the unchecked power of the
government-linked Shia militias, most of whom
American intelligence says has links to Iran. And
we're also seeing reconciliation among the people
really isn't happening. Most of Baghdad is now
divided by sectarian enclaves. In the villages I've
just come from in Diyala province, they're now all 99
percent to 100 percent Sunni or Shia, Sunni or Shia.
FOREMAN: Michael, can that work, however? One notion
is, go ahead. Let the country divide upon some sort
of stasis where they're just not fighting all the
time and that's okay.
WARE: Well, they will be fighting all the time and
what we'll see is a situation akin to Lebanon in the
'80s and '90s. That's what's shaping up now, very
powerful militia blocs of different variations and
different kinds. We've seen America choose its side
in terms of this militia competition. They're backing
the Sunnis and the government's been screaming about
that, claiming this is America overstepping their
authority and backing anti-government forces against
the very government America created. So this is how
America is bringing down the violence. By cutting
these deals and to some degree turning against the
government that it forged.
FOREMAN: There is so much more we could talk about
but we're out of time. Michael Ware, thank you, Rend
al-Rahim, we'll return to the subject many times I'm
sure and see where we wind up in all of
this.