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WOLF
BLITZER: There's been a dramatic drop in the violence
in Iraq, with the U.S. military now reporting
stunning declines in the number of attacks and the
number of casualties.
But can
these gains hold without a political solution? And
joining us now from Baghdad, our correspondent,
Michael Ware. Michael, clearly, the statistics are
showing some favorable trends right now. But I take
it the U.S. military itself is worried that the
positive numbers that have been reported lately, that
could turn around down the road.
What's going on?
MICHAEL WARE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Oh, surely, Wolf.
I mean the first thing that has to be said is this --
there has been a spectacular success. I mean, as the
U.S. military is reporting, you know, attacks are
down by 55 percent than what they were just back in
June. Civilian deaths in Baghdad are down by a
massive 75 percent. Indeed, we're seeing levels of
violence that we haven't seen since January 2006 --
since before the Samarra mosque bombing which sparked
the civil war.
Now, will it last?
This is the million dollar question. Admirals and
generals are very careful to caution that these are
very positive trends, but we can't read too much into
them yet. Privately, what the strategists are telling
me is that things could turn on a dime. We could see
the violence revert back almost instantly. However,
their belief is that that won't happen. Among the
U.S. forces here, they have the confidence they can
keep the levels of violence to where they are now,
until at least the summer of next year. But what
happens after that, no one knows because the name of
the game now, Wolf, is reconciliation. By building
Sunni militias, by America essentially now working
with 72,000 Sunni insurgents, putting 45,000 of them
on the U.S. government payroll, that has seen a
massive decline in attacks.
It's also seen neighborhoods in Baghdad protected
essentially by U.S.-backed Sunni militias.
The problem is, is there going to be real
reconciliation at the political level with this
Shia-dominated government?
And all signs right now point to no. So perhaps the
success may amount to nothing. And the generals are
warning that if there's no reconciliation by next
summer, we may be looking for a new strategy -- Wolf.
BLITZER: The -- you've been away for a while. Now
you're back. Actually, you've been there for more
than four years covering this war.
Have you felt any really discernible difference on
the streets of Baghdad or elsewhere since you've come
back?
WARE: Well, yes and no, I have to say. I mean, yeah,
look, honestly, this is a much more peaceful city
than it used to be. But we still have dozens and
dozens of people dying every week. Now, I mean, the
American military celebrated last Friday, because
across the country there was only 33 attacks.
Now, can you imagine in any other country in the
world, be it Israel, be it America itself, be it
Pakistan, that there were 33 attacks in a day?
That would be a horrific day. Yet here, that's cause
for celebration. There very much is still a war going
on.
So, yes, I can feel changes. There is a certain life
returning to the city. But, honestly, Wolf, this is a
segregated metropolis. People live in heavily guarded
sectarian enclaves. This is a world divided. There is
still great tension, great distrust and, honestly, I
don't see the path forward happening how most people
hope.
BLITZER: Michael Ware, be careful over there.
Thanks very much.
WARE: Thank you, mate.
BLITZER: Let's get right to Jack Cafferty.
He's in New York for The Cafferty File.
Good to have Michael back in Baghdad -- Jack.
CAFFERTY: Yes. Yes, you're reading my mind. I've
missed him.