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SOLEDAD
O'BRIEN: Now to Iraq and some better news there, a
dramatic decrease in death tolls; 37 troops have died
in October, the lowest monthly death toll since March
of 2006. And the Iraqi government says the number of
civilians killed fell from a high of nearly 2,000 in
August to 301 in September. Are we looking at a
turning point in Iraq?
Joining us
this evening, CNN's Michael Ware in the studio with
us. That's rare and nice to see. Joining us from
Baghdad tonight is Nic Robertson.
Nice to see both of you, in fact.
Nic, in fact, let's start with you, with some good
news to report. Is it a clear indication, in your
mind, that the surge is working?
NIC ROBERTSON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL
CORRESPONDENT: It's the surge. It's many other things
as well. One of the deadliest Shia militias --
Muqtada al-Sadr, the firebrand Shia cleric -- his
militia has been on a cease-fire. There's been a
change in tactics by the U.S. military. They are
working with tribal sheiks. They are working with
these local militias, these sort of community forces.
So, there are many factors that are at work. And it
really depends which part of Iraq as to which factor
is the most dominant one.
But the surge has helped. It has put more troops into
the heart of the community. It has put concrete
barriers around communities. It has divided
communities. It's made them safer. So, that's one of
the reasons why the figures are down.
But the concern here is that if there isn't a
political change, if there isn't political compromise
then this lull in the fighting could be lost,
Soledad.
O'BRIEN: Well, let's talk more about politics in one
second, because I want to ask Michael a question
first.
We hear that the surge seems to be working. Is it
working enough to say it's a turning point?
MICHAEL WARE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, the military
commanders are obviously cautious. They are saying
it's too early too tell if this is a long-term trend.
And that's valid.
However, yes, this is a significant shift. Can you
attribute it to the surge? That's a different thing.
The surge is doing good things. It is changing the
nature of the environment, particularly in Baghdad.
However, there are costs to that. But, with the focus
on al Qaeda, the real nature of the success there has
nothing to do with the surge.
It's about the deal that the Americans -- or the
accord the Americans have come to with what they are
calling the Sunni tribes, which is essentially the
Sunni insurgency. What they have done is
subcontracted out the fight against al Qaeda to the
very men who used to fight alongside them, who now
know where they sleep, who know where they hide, and
who can go and get them.
That's the real success, certainly in terms of al
Qaeda. Baghdad, yes, there's less violence, but
there's also a price for that. We have
institutionalized the segregation of those
communities, and we have seen America allow the
development of what's more or less Sunni militias to
counteract the government-backed Shia militias.
O'BRIEN: Nic, you know, you talked about politics
just a moment ago. And a lot of the surge, the point
was to allow those political benchmarks to be
reached. Did, in fact, that happen? Has there been
progress on that front?
ROBERTSON: Absolutely not. In fact, in some ways,
there's been a reversal.
The sort of Shia-dominated government, in the view of
many politicians, has become more entrenched. And
that is exactly what Michael is saying here. I talked
very recently with two senior cabinet-level ministers
here in Iraq. And both of them are very concerned
that political compromise and reconciliation isn't
happening.
One of them even said, because of this sort of
standing up of the -- working with the tribal sheiks,
of forming these sort of Sunni militias to protect
Sunni areas, while you have had Shia-dominated police
force becoming more embedded, more entrenched, what
you now have is a much more dangerous situation.
I asked one of them, is a civil war as likely as it
was a year ago? He said, look, the potential for it
absolutely still exists, and it would be worse than
it would be before.
Why? Because you now have a better organized Shia
force and you have a much better organized Sunni
force. And the tribal sheiks I have talked to in the
west of the country, when you push them and push them
and push them and say, what is your bottom line for
compromise with the Shia-dominated government that
they believe is backed by Iran, they don't have a
compromise position.
The only thing they come down to is that they will
fight this government. And that's what worries
politicians now. One of them told me, what you would
have is a better-organized Sunni force fighting a
better-organized Shia force, possibly the state, is
what he said.
So, what you have here is better-organized Sunni
militias, possibly now, at some point, if the
compromises don't happen in the government, fighting
the government of Iraq.
O'BRIEN: So, some good news, Michael, but in a very
dire context, certainly.
WARE: Well, absolutely.
I mean, look, there's a price for everything. And,
look, who isn't grateful that the horrific killings
are down? It's almost at the point where it doesn't
matter at whatever cost. This is also going to be the
way that America finally gets its troops out of
there.
But, again, it's going to come with a heavy price in
the long term. We are building the building blocks
for a proxy war that, eventually, America is going to
have to manage one way or another.
O'BRIEN: Michael Ware with us tonight, nice to have
you in the studio, Michael, as always.
WARE: Good to be here.
O'BRIEN: Nic Robertson in Baghdad for us -- thanks,
Nic.