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TOM FOREMAN: It's all
well and good to discuss the war in Iraq from here in
Washington, to look at the big picture battle plans
and intricate political arguments, but to really
understand it, someone has to go out there, out with
the troops on the frontlines. This week Michael Ware
did just that. He went to the Diyala River Valley,
known as the DRV. It is over in this side of the
country, the eastern part of the country. That's
where al Qaeda once ran a mini-state, everything from
a police force to courts that operated under
religious law. Before we get into our discussion,
take a look at some of his report.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
WARE (voice-over): While the surge in the Iraqi
capital dominates public attention, the DRV is at the
heart of al Qaeda's military operations. And in
recent months, U.S. forces have been battling to take
this valley. Flooding it with paratroopers, much of
the fight for the DRV now rests with this man,
Lieutenant Colonel Andrew Pappas of the 5-73rd
airborne squadron. Of his 300-plus men, 21 have been
killed, most here in the valley.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
FOREMAN: And back from his embed in the DRV valley,
Michael Ware joins us from our Baghdad bureau.
Michael, what do you see out there right now? Are we
making progress or not?
WARE: Well, progress is a many-varied thing, Tom. I
mean, in one sense, militarily, are U.S. forces
currently putting pressure on the al Qaeda network in
the province of Diyala? Yes, absolutely. Their
hierarchy, their structures right now are under
strain. And they've since been dispersed. Part of
that has come because America is finally able to
commit some forces to these regions. I mean the DRV
has been an al Qaeda stronghold for years. It has
been relatively untouched. And it is only now that
the military's been able to go in and reclaim that
valley.
But there's also other problems as well. Militarily,
yeah, they've pushed al Qaeda out. But we find in
that valley, like in most of the countryside, it's
now been ethnically cleansed or segregated by
sectarian faith. It is now either pure Sunni or pure
Shia villages. And here's a small example from the
DRV: recently a Sunni battalion of the Army arrived
from Fallujah and the Sunni villages celebrated. Why?
Because the police force is Shia and it has been
linked to the deaths of a number of their sheikhs and
an untold number of their young men. So they want the
army to stand up against their own police. That's the
sectarian divide we're leaving behind.
FOREMAN: So that speaks to the notion we started this
show with, that some people believe that we're
already in the earlier stages of a civil war and
that's part of what's happening in Diyala.
WARE: We have to be kidding if we think at this stage
that we can still be debating whether there's a civil
war or not. I mean, that's beyond the pale now. I
mean, on any textbook definition or political
scientist definition of civil war, you have that,
right now, here in this country. Now, it may be
boiling away at a certain temperature, bubbling to a
certain degree. The real point is, once you draw down
U.S. forces --below say 100,000 or 75,000 -- that's
simply enough troops just to protect the Americans
themselves. The civil war will erupt of its own
accord in and around these troops. There it will
reach a boiling point where it will bubble over the
top of the pot. There is a civil war now. And the
building blocks are well and truly in place for a
much more Lebanon-style civil war once U.S. forces
draw down, be it this year or next.
FOREMAN: We know you'll keep track of all that's
going on in Diyala and the rest of the country.
Thanks so much Michael for your time.