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JIM
CLANCY: Religion forcing its way onto the agenda of
the American political scene, but there is an issue
that is out there in the minds of American voters,
and it certainly is number one in many's minds, the
war in Iraq.
The top U.S. military commander there pointing to a
drop in violence again. General David Petraeus cited
a 60 percent decline in weekly attacks and civilian
deaths over the last six months. He credits several
factors to the drop in the violence. Petraeus says
cleric Muqtada al-Sadr's call for his followers to
honor a cease-fire one of the things, one of those
factors that helped. The general also credits the
U.S. efforts, including the troop surge and more
aggressive operations against militias.
Well, despite the drop in violence, General Petraeus
says he's not celebrating, no dancing in the end
zone, as he said. He says 2007 has been the deadliest
year for U.S. troops since the start of the war four
years ago.
Michael Ware joins us now live from Baghdad.
All of this timed, all of this coming out -- yes,
it's the beginning of the month when these numbers
usually do come out, but also you've got the
secretary of defense there. What kind of a message is
it that we're hearing from Iraq today? And does that
message jibe with what you see on the streets?
MICHAEL WARE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, it does, Jim. I
mean, honestly, this is extremely old news.
Since October, we have heard the top U.S. commander
saying that violence levels are back down to what
they were before the Samarra shrine bombing in
February 2006 which sparked a civil war. So, this is
not a revelation.
U.S. commanders have been hammering and hammering and
hammering this stunning success, and that's precisely
what it is. More lives are being saved. Less
Americans are dying. And more importantly, or just as
importantly, less Iraqi innocent civilians are dying
as well. That's women and children.
However, there's consequences. There's cause --
there's action and there's reaction.
Now, part of that is that America has built Sunni
militias. Now, they're going to have to contend with
that in the future.
Another part is that an accommodation has to be found
with Iran. We now see American commanders saying
Iranian activity is dropping, but we don't know why,
yet we also believe they're still training Iraqis to
come and attack us. So Iran still remains a huge
mystery.
And the other thing is they're showing that they're
tired of this government. The Americans are losing
faith in this government's ability to deliver because
all of the success, this 60 percent drop in violence,
will be squandered, say U.S. commanders, if there's
not real reconciliation by the time the 30,000 U.S.
troops go home next summer, Jim.
There's always a price to pay for things.
CLANCY: Well, a lot of military commanders are saying
that you can't just start pulling out troops because
the numbers are down for precisely the reasons that
you are talking about there. What do the Sunnis want?
So many have joined these -- you know, the so-called
local militias now being funded to the tune of $200
or $300 a month per man. They're functioning as
police.
WARE: Yes.
CLANCY: The government though says we're not going to
take them in. They want to save those police jobs,
those salaries on the budgets, and hand it out to
their own political supporters. In this case, the
Shia Alliance.
WARE: Well, that's right. I mean, there's a lot of
political patronage here. And that's really what
we're talking about at the end of the day.
I mean, one of the major factions within this
government, arguably one of the most dominant, was
created back in 1982 in Tehran. Its armed militia is
one of the most sophisticated in the country. And top
American political analysts and strategists here on
the ground say they don't know how to break the back
of that organization.
Now, until you do, you're not really going to make
headway toward reconciliation. Part of it has been
cutting a deal with the Sunni Ba'athist insurgents,
Saddam's former military and intelligence apparatus
that America has been fighting all these years. The
question is, why didn't they cut this deal three
years ago?
And overlaying all of this is Iran, the Sunnis' fear
of Iran and Iran's backing of the government that's
not delivering to America. It's still a very
complicated picture, and that's why General Petraeus
is being told by his commanders, "It's looking good,
sir, but it could turn on a dime and be back to the
hellish numbers that we saw before."
And these troops are leaving anyway. We're simply
going back to the numbers we used to have. It's not
like a drawdown as a result of this stunning success
-- Jim.
CLANCY: Michael, a final question, and that is about
the government itself. There was a knockdown,
drag-out once again inside the parliament with a Shia
lawmaker saying that he had evidence that his Sunni
counterpart was plotting against him. The lack of
trust among the people that have to lead this country
is making any progress impossible.
Is the U.S. here powerless to do anything to step in
and force the Maliki government -- force both sides,
really, to come together here? They still haven't
decided on an oil law to share the wealth, they
haven't set the borders of the provinces, shared --
none of it.
WARE: The main problem is, Jim, that the very
institutions of power, or certainly those who hold
them, the framework of political control in this
country, is geared against all of America's
interests. And America is finding it harder than it
ever thought it would be to break those. So, now,
more than ever, America is continuing to work with
this Iraqi government, but it's looking for
alternatives. It's turning to the people. People
power.
If the government won't change, then let's empower
the people. Let's give them the weapons. Let's allow
them to patrol their streets. Let's fund them if the
government won't. And let's erode this block on power
that's preventing real reconciliation.
So, the very government America created, it's tried
to coerce, it's tried to help, now it's starting to
erode because it's becoming more of a hindrance than
a help. Now, America has no set path, but
nonetheless, the road ahead is still difficult and
there's so many factors yet to be taken into account
-- Jim.
CLANCY: All right. The casualties are down, the risks
ever present.
Michael Ware from Baghdad.
As always, Michael, great to have you with
us.