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Length: 4:45
ANDERSON COOPER: It has
been nearly six months since the U.S. increased its
troop levels in Iraq, and today U.S. military
commanders said major attacks are declining.
Officials said there were about half as many truck
bombs and other large al Qaeda-style attacks in July
as in March.
Of course, any reduction in the violence is great
news, but the question is are major attacks declining
as a direct result of the so-called troop surge?
That's where things get more complicated.
Joining me now is CNN's Michael Ware.
Michael, the U.S. military commander in Iraq says
that large-scale al Qaeda-style attacks have declined
by almost 50 percent this year, down to 70 attacks a
month from a high of 130. Is this because of more
boots on the ground?
MICHAEL WARE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Anderson, the
surge is a part of it. Militarily, the surge is
designed to deny al Qaeda and the Shia death squads
the freedom of movement they once had in Baghdad.
Are they doing that? Yeah, to some degree. The surge
has shown some successes.
But the real success, Anderson, is coming from
something totally different, and that is coming from
America cutting deals with its former enemies,
principally the Ba'athist insurgents, the Sunni
insurgents.
It's by cutting a deal with the Ba'ath Party on the
terms that the Ba'ath Party offered America four
years ago -- and had to wait for America to be
battered into submission to accept -- that the tide
has turned against al Qaeda.
It's by unleashing the Ba'ath that the al Qaeda bombs
are coming down, that the al Qaeda attacks are
starting to slow down, not directly from the surge
and not from the presence of U.S. troops.
What the U.S. troops are doing is giving a set of
numbers, a series of data, a number of lowered attack
figures that may give the military the political
cover it needs in Washington. But at the end of the
day, by cutting these deals the seeds are being sown
for a much broader, more entrenched civil war that
America will leave behind.
COOPER: Which is a long-term issue, not something
which in the immediate, in the short term is, you
know, is on the front burner.
WARE: Absolutely. I mean, right now the
administration from President Bush on is pointing to
an op-ed piece that appeared in "The New York Times"
by two well-respected Brookings Institute figures,
Michael O'Hanlon and Kenneth Pollack.
Now, they say that "yes, we were critics of the war,
and we're seeing now positive signs." Yet even they
said that what the surge is doing is not enough to
produce victory, but it may produce a level of
stability both we and the Iraqi people can live with.
Think about that. What we're saying is this isn't an
American win. America is not on track to win this
war. Even the president is not saying that. It just
might be enough for America to get out of this war
and not worry about the tens of thousands who will
die at the hands of American-supported Sunni militias
and Iranian-supported Shia militias.
Don't forget, by supporting the Sunnis in the way
that they are, the American administration right now
is picking sides in the civil war.
COOPER: In terms of talking about big al Qaeda-style
attacks and this number reduction, in terms of the
success story, what about sectarian violence? Has
this escalation of troops had an impact on that?
WARE: No, not really. It's forced it to displace,
it's forced it to morph and to adapt as we always
expected it will.
Now the number of bodies -- tortured, mutilated,
victims of sectarian death squads -- that are showing
up on the streets of Baghdad continue to rise and
fall. Right now, there's less than there used to be,
but by less that's still 20 tortured people showing
up every morning.
Now, the numbers are down for a number of reasons.
One is two million people have fled the country.
Another two million are displaced internally in
refugee camps, so there's simply fewer targets. And
of those who remain in the capital and in the
villages surrounding, they now must live in
segregated communities, heavily defended by their own
militias, be they American-backed Sunni militias or
Iranian-backed Shia militias. No one lives together
anymore, very, very few people. This place has been
ethnically cleansed and segregated.
So deaths are down because it's much harder to kill
each other -- until the Americans withdraw and the
real battle begins.
COOPER: Complicated picture. Michael Ware, we
appreciate it. Thanks, Michael.