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Wolf talks to Michael about the Basra situation, including a clip from Michael's recent interview with Ambassador Ryan Crocker. (How does Wolf manage to sound surprised that the outlook for Iraq is "gloomy"?)
WOLF
BLITZER: Attacks on his patriotism -- conservatives
may already be testing the waters for a strategy to
torpedo Barack Obama's presidential run. How would
the candidate fight back?
Also, "like Lebanon on steroids" -- that's how our
Michael Ware is describing an all-out proxy war that
could explode in Iraq. As we'll hear, he's not the
only one with that grim scenario.
And the day after he took office, he admitted to a
series of affairs. Now he's owning up to past drug
use. Does all of this somehow help New York's new
governor?
Stay with us. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
BLITZER: Bloody clashes raged today between Iraqi
security forces and followers of the anti-American
Shiite cleric, Muqtada al-Sadr. At least 50 people
died after Iraqi forces moved against al-Sadr's Mahdi
Army in the southern city of Basra. The fighting has
spread to Shiite districts, as well, in Baghdad. And
there are now grim suggestions that clashes like
these could foreshadow what would happen when U.S.
troops leave Iraq.
And joining us now from London, our own Michael Ware.
Michael, thanks very much for coming in. I want to
play a little clip of an interview you did with the
U.S. ambassador in Iraq, Ryan Crocker. This exchange
-- listen to it and then we'll talk.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
RYAN CROCKER, U.S. AMBASSADOR TO IRAQ: I think the
fight would be on, and on at a level that we just
haven't seen here before.
MICHAEL WARE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, we're talking,
like, a regional proxy war?
CROCKER: I think that's the possibility you have to
look at, because as bad as it was in 2006 -- and no
one knows better than you how bad it was -- we were
here. If we spiral into conflict again and we're
leaving, everybody knows we're not coming back.
WARE: Yes.
CROCKER: So I think the gloves then come completely
off. And it's in that environment that the risk of
regional involvement in the conflict, particularly
from Iran, becomes very grave, indeed.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BLITZER: All right, Michael, describe the scenario --
that worst-case scenario that he was talking about.
What was he referring to?
WARE: Look, Wolf, what we're talking about is a
crystal ball into an Iraq in a post-American
withdrawal vacuum. Now Ambassador Crocker, like any
U.S. commander on the ground in Iraq, does not speak
in term of timetables. They simply do not exist nor
can they work.
What we're talking about here is that right now,
America, at the force levels it has, though it is
unable to really project the power, perhaps, America
would like, it is nonetheless a stabilizing influence
as far as it goes.
What we're looking at is perhaps something that we're
seeing like today, in the Southern oil-rich city of
Basra, where faction upon faction is battling it out
in the streets. Now, one of them happens to be in
government uniforms and another faction is not.
What Ambassador Crocker is saying is that without
America in the middle, the grave potential with a
premature withdrawal from Iraq or any pre-set
timetable is a regional proxy war. We're talking
about Lebanon in the 1980s writ large -- Lebanon on
steroids. We already have the militia factions in
place. We're going to see Iran funding and backing,
as it is now, its forces in Iraq. We're then going to
see America's Arab allies, such as Jordan and Saudi
Arabia, and even Egypt and Kuwait, backing its Sunni
allies.
All of this atop some of the largest oil reserves in
the world. And, at the same time, whatever economic
impact a conflict like that will have on the world
markets and in America at the bowser
[gas
pump], let's
not forget, in such chaos there will be more
terrorist camps than you can shake a stick at.
BLITZER: So basically --
WARE: And if you don't think that will come back to
bite America, you're deluding yourself. So that's
what Ambassador Crocker is talking about, a regional
proxy war whose aftershocks will come back and affect
America -- Wolf.
BLITZER: And this presumes that the Iraqi government
-- the Iraqi military would simply not be able to do
what the U.S. military presence does any time soon,
is that right?
WARE: Well, certainly, the Iranian ambassador -- with
whom I spoke last week, as well, in an interview --
is of the belief that the Iraqi security forces are
more than ready to take over the security environment
that currently exists in Iraq. Indeed, the Iranians
believe that it's the American presence that's
fomenting terrorism and violence.
However, what you need to be aware is that this Iraqi
government does not share U.S. agendas. It's much
more closely related to Tehran than it is to
Washington. And these are Iraqi security forces.
These are -- by American military commanders' own
admissions, essentially militia forces in uniform.
The American commanders on the ground make no bones
about the fact that what they're doing right now,
today, in Iraq -- hopefully for the better, but
perhaps for the worse -- is already training
militias. Now they might be in police outfits. They
might be in Iraqi Army training camps.
But where do you think these security forces come
from? They're given by the most powerful factions in
the country. And they are paramilitary or militia
forces.
And then you have those forces working outside of the
government who are now on the U.S. payroll. They're
the Sunni insurgents. Now, out of the 90,000 in
total, of whom 70,000 are being paid by Washington,
only about 9,000 have been integrated into the
official Iraqi security forces. And that 9,000 aren't
working for Prime Minister Maliki. They're working in
their own neighborhoods answering to their own
sheikhs. So that is the future Iraq that we're
talking about -- Wolf.
BLITZER: It sounds so gloomy.
Michael, thanks very much. We'll see you here in
Washington.
WARE: Thank you, Wolf. I look forward to
it.