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As part of the "Memo to the President" series, Michael outlines the decisions President-elect Obama faces in regards to removing troops from Iraq. The Iraqi parliament has approved an agreement to extend the time US troops remain in the country, but also included a firm date by which all troops must be out.
JOHN
ROBERTS: An important and positive step, that's what
U.S. officials are calling the approval of the
security pact between Washington and Iraq's cabinet.
The agreement will allow the U.S. forces to remain in
the country for another three years. The United
Nations mandate was due to expire at the end of this
year. But now that the agreement is in place and we
know that American troops can stay in Iraq for
another three years, what does Barack Obama need to
do during those 36 months? Our Michael Ware has
today's "Memo to the President."
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
MICHAEL WARE, CNN BAGHDAD CORRESPONDENT (voice-over):
Mr. President-elect, the war in Iraq will soon be
yours to command. It's a war that's weakened some of
your enemies while strengthening others, and though
it's a war in which America has not lost a fight,
Professor of Middle East Studies Juan Cole says the
solution won't be found on the battlefield.
PROF. JUAN COLE, UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN: If I were
writing a letter to the future president, I would
tell him to be diplomat in chief.
WARE: And to somehow deliver a miracle by bringing
Iraq's warring factions together while containing the
influence of America's enemies.
COLE: It is that kind of diplomacy that is needed if
a military withdrawal is to be accomplished.
WARE: Getting out of Iraq will be come at a price,
perhaps including an emboldened Iran. It's already
well placed to fill any vacuum left by a U.S.
withdrawal. From the moment of the U.S. invasion,
Iran has sponsored powerful militia like this one and
nurtured its ties with Iraq's most powerful political
factions now running the government in Baghdad. U.S.
military intelligence says Iran has contributed to
the deaths of countless American soldiers. So America
needs all its allies like these Sunni militiamen
who've systematically assassinated Al Qaeda members.
Mostly former insurgents, now more than 100,000 of
them are on Washington's payroll.
Another ally are the Kurds. They helped topple Saddam
but are now in dispute with Baghdad over oil and
land. 140,000 American troops have been keeping
Iraq's rival militia from an all out civil war.
COLE: There are these looming conflicts. A quick U.S.
withdrawal with no diplomatic arrangements made for
reconciliation could throw the country back into very
substantial chaos.
WARE: A problem, as president, you must find a way to
avoid.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
WARE: So, John, that's what confronts the
president-elect when he takes office. As we've heard,
the Iraqi cabinet has now approved the terms of the
agreement that would allow the ongoing presence of
U.S. troops in that country. However, it's not
entirely in the form that Washington would have
liked. And it has to be said, it sharply curbs U.S.
power there in Iraq. John.
ROBERTS: Michael, what do we know about a long-term
strategic relationship between the United States and
Iraq? Even after major combat forces have been
removed from that country under Barack Obama's plan,
what could that look like going forward? President
Bush has suggested, you know, think North Korea or
South Korea and Germany when you think about how long
U.S. troops could stay?
WARE: Well, that's the thing. And that's the great
dilemma facing the next administration is how are you
going to fill the vacuum after your troops come home?
Everybody wants the troops to come home. Yet that
140,000 combat troops on the ground are what's
holding the country together, by keeping the warring
factions apart. So the more you reduce the troops,
the more you leave Iraq to its own devices.
And with a firm out-date imposed by the Iraqi
government, that means U.S. forces could be forced to
leave Iraq no matter what's happening on the ground.
That could include bloodshed as a civil war erupts.
It may include increased Iranian influence, it could
even be a return of al Qaeda elements. Essentially,
much of the question has been taken out of U.S. hands
in terms of boots on the ground. So what will the
president-elect and his cabinet do to put something
into the breach, and it's certainly not something
that we could look at and consider a win or a victory
at this stage.
I wouldn't be putting any champagne on ice when it
comes to the signing of this agreement, the departure
of the American troops and what will happen after
they leave. John.
ROBERTS: The important questions still to be
answered. Michael Ware for us this morning in
Washington. Michael, thanks so much for
that.