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Erica Hill spoke to Michael earlier in the day, and he once again tries to sound-bite the complex situation in Iraq into five-minutes-or-less.
ANDERSON
COOPER: Up next, Baghdad's Green Zone under attack,
two Americans killed this week, raging violence. What
can be done, if anything, to stop it? And what does
it mean, what does it portend about a possible
pull-out? We'll talk with CNN's Michael Ware coming
up.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
(GUNFIRE)
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COOPER: The crack of gunfire on the streets of Basra
in southern Iraq. After months of reduced violence,
Iraq is once again erupting. The violence is
widespread. In Basra, the Iraqi army is engaged in a
fierce battle with the followers of Shia cleric
Muqtada al-Sadr. Iraq's government is trying to crush
al-Sadr's forces. The fighting has left scores dead.
And in Baghdad, insurgents continue their assault on
the heavily fortified Green Zone. Members of the U.S.
embassy are being told to stay inside. Two Americans
have been killed after five days of rocket -- excuse
me, after days of rocket attacks. And a city-wide
curfew is in effect through Sunday evening.
Now today, President Bush stood firm, saying the
so-called surge is working and, quote, "the progress
in Iraq is real," unquote. The question is, is it?
For a reality check, Erica Hill spoke to CNN's
Michael Ware, who's been covering the war in Iraq
since it began.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ERICA HILL: Michael, with everything we've been
seeing lately and now the U.S. embassy telling
employees to stay inside because of the violence, can
you tell us why there's such an uptick? Why now?
MICHAEL WARE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, this has been
triggered by an Iraqi government offensive in the
southern oil-rich city of Basra. Now, that's a city
that's controlled by a number of militia factions.
Now, whilst the Iraqi government and the U.S.
military is very keen to dress this up as a bold
decision targeting criminal elements, in the ultimate
washout, the real target of this offensive will
invariably be the Mehdi Army militia, which is loyal
to the anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr.
E. HILL: But isn't there also -- and correct me if
I'm wrong here, Michael, but there's also the issue
that in Basra specifically, a lot of the forces
there, I think more than half of them, maybe 16,000
of the Basra police force, they're also -- have been
said to be infiltrated with the very militia they're
supposed to be fighting.
WARE: Oh, absolutely. I mean, in one sense there's no
such thing as an Iraqi police force. I mean, these
are localized groups put in police uniforms, largely
funded by the Americans and trained by Americans. But
they're either Sunni insurgent groups who serve in
their hometown or their local militia forces backed
by Iran who serve in their hometown.
Basra is no different. However, in Basra, we have a
whole rainbow alliance of Iranian-backed or
Iranian-linked or Iranian-supported militias.
Now, the provincial government is controlled by one
group. Now, they're not completely aligned with Iran,
but they're not separate from Iran. The streets, in
many ways, are dominated by the Mehdi Army militia of
Muqtada al-Sadr who has links to Iran but is not
beholden to Iran.
Yet, this central government, who is launching this
offensive, is very much in so many ways, through its
key factions, tied intricately with Iran. Yet,
America must inevitably throw its lot in with this
government.
So this is a very complicated picture. There are so
many games in play here we can't even begin to
describe them.
E. HILL: I know. And frankly, it's tough to keep them
all straight. But I would imagine one of the other
major concerns here is the fact that this violence in
Basra, in the southern part of the country, could
spread?
WARE: Well, it could spread in a number of ways. I
mean, in one sense, the potential is that this will
be limited to Shia-dominated areas. That's largely
southern Iraq, which is heavily overwhelmed by
Iranian influence, not American influence. Certainly,
not British influence, who were given control of that
area, and they've retreated to their air base outside
of Basra and have no ability to change this
environment whatsoever.
However, could it spread to the rest of the country?
Northern Iraq? No. The Kurds are very happy to see
Arabs fighting Arabs, whether they be Iranian-backed
or backed by other Arab countries.
The Sunnis now, 70,000 of whom were killing Americans
but are now on the U.S. government payroll, will have
a key strategic decision to make. Do we try and
capitalize on this internal Shia-on-Shia, pro-Iranian
backed factional fighting or do we stand back, let
them kill each other and then step in?
So there's a potential for this to go any number of
ways, all of which are complicated, all of which add
to the woes of the U.S. mission, and all of which
risk jeopardizing the gains of the so-called surge.
E. HILL: Last thing that I think anyone wants to
hear, unfortunately. Michael Ware, always appreciate
the insight.
WARE: Thank you.
(END VIDEOTAPE)