CB: "He's much more
valuable to them alive than dead."
Monday, July 20, 2009
Length: 7:28
LARGE (86.2 MB)
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SMALL (9.1 MB)
Michael is back in New York, and joins a
discussion about the Army private being held by the
Taliban. John Roberts hosts, Chris Lawrence (via
video from DC) and Seth Jones are the other
panelists.
Michael gives some good info about the background
of the Afghanistan warlord who now holds the
private (almost certainly now in Pakistan) and
points out how valuable he is to the Taliban as a
means of getting the US to the negotiating table --
which bodes well for the continued health of the
young man.
JOHN
ROBERTS: To Afghanistan now and the search for
captured Army Private First Class Bowe Bergdahl. The
Taliban released a video of him, drawing a quick
condemnation from U.S. officials.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
PFC. BOWE R. BERGDAHL, U.S. ARMY: I have my
girlfriend who I was hoping to marry. I have my
grandma and grandpas. I have a very, very good family
that I love back home in America. And I miss them
every day that I'm gone. I miss them and I'm afraid
that I might never see them again.
ROBERT GATES, DEFENSE SECRETARY: My personal reaction
was one of disgust at the exploitation of this young
man.
ADM. MICHAEL MULLEN, JOINT CHIEFS CHAIRMAN: Having
been with the forces, in fact, who are conducting the
operations to recover him or to find him is they are
extensive, vast. They're on it 24/7, and we're doing
absolutely everything we can to get him back.
BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: What does
that mean? Air drones flying overhead, passing out
fliers on the ground, collecting intelligence, seeing
if they can eavesdrop, if you will, on any
conversations that they might be able to hear.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERTS: CNN Pentagon correspondent Chris Lawrence
joins us now from Washington. And with me here in New
York are Michael Ware, who's actually spent
considerable time with the Taliban leaders now
holding Bergdahl. And Seth Jones, he's just back from
Afghanistan and he is the author of "In the Graveyard
of Empires: America's War in Afghanistan."
Chris, let's start with you. The Taliban, the U.S.
military, and Bowe Bergdahl all giving different
reasons for why he was captured by the Taliban or how
he came to be, what he was doing at the time. What's
the best assessment that we have of exactly how he
was captured?
CHRIS LAWRENCE, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Yes,
John, right now, there are three versions of what
happened to him. The Taliban says that Private
Bergdahl visited another military outpost, got drunk
and was ambushed on his way back to his car. But a
military source, an American military source says the
Taliban is lying about him being drunk but that he
did leave his small outpost on his own and he went
without his weapons.
And on the videotape that you just saw, the soldier,
himself says that he was on patrol but that he was
lagging behind when he was captured. The one thing
that they all can probably agree on is that he has
been moved several times since his capture.
ROBERTS: Seth Jones, when the Taliban says that he
was drinking, is there any reason to believe them?
SETH JONES, AUTHOR, "IN THE GRAVEYARD OF EMPIRES":
No, for several reasons. One is that no military base
in Afghanistan is allowed to have alcohol at all.
U.S. military soldiers are actually removed from
Afghanistan if they're drinking at all, so you can't
find alcohol at a U.S. military base. Second of all,
it really --
MICHAEL WARE, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: I'm
not sure about that, Seth. I've had a few drinks on a
few bases in Afghanistan.
JONES: Well, but in general, I mean, the penalty for
a soldier to drink --
WARE: General Standing Order Number One is a war
crime in itself. Preventing alcohol.
JONES: But the second issue this is just great
propaganda, to be able to show the infidel drinking
in a country where they don't drink alcohol I think
is a useful propaganda tool.
ROBERTS: Right.
So, Michael, as we said, you have spent considerable
time. You are familiar with the people who are
holding Bergdahl.
WARE: Very much so.
ROBERTS: Tell us what you know.
WARE: These -- this is the Haqqani network. It's led
by Jalaluddin Haqqani. He used to be the CIA's
greatest ally in the 1980s. Indeed, he was the man
who took then-Congressman Charlie Wilson into
Afghanistan and brought him back out.
Now, while the Pakistani intelligence service, who
was filtering all the money, had all its little
patrons, the CIA developed its own independent
channel and Haqqani was very important to that. Now,
Haqqani became very aggrieved when America abandoned
him and Afghan --
ROBERTS: As many of the Mujahideen did.
WARE: As they did. And I know that in the months
after 9/11, there were conversations with Haqqani
trying to bring him back in from the fold. And as far
as he was concerned, he was simply fighting another
foreign occupation. But this all now fits into a much
greater picture. This private first class is now
going to be a key joker card that the Taliban can
play in negotiations to end this war. As we know, the
Pakistani intelligence organization has always been
the conduit to the Taliban. They've now finally
admitted in public that they've talking to Mullah
Omar, Haqqani and all the rest. It's almost like this
private was a target of opportunity, and he's now
going to be well-used in any forthcoming
negotiations.
ROBERTS: Chris Lawrence, pick that up for us. What's
the Pentagon saying about the potential that he could
be used as some sort of a bargaining chip? You know,
I don't think that he goes through this Survival,
Evasion, Resistance and Escape training that many
flyers do or Special Operations Forces. Are they
worried about his state of mind there? Are they
worried about how he's surviving his captivity?
LAWRENCE: They are. You know, there is that intense
Resistance and Escape training that involves food and
sleep deprivation. But again, like you said, that's
only given to pilots, special ops, people at very
high risk of being captured.
Private Bergdahl would have gone through a very basic
version of that. He would have been instructed to
follow his captors' directions, not make enemies of
his captors. But he would have been told to always
look for a chance to escape. It's the difference
between being a prisoner of war and a prisoner at
war.
ROBERTS: Go ahead, Michael.
WARE: That's one thing. Right now, at this junction
in the war, he is more valuable to the Taliban alive
than dead. If he was with Al Qaeda, he'd be dead by
now.
JONES: Yes. And one of the interesting components of
this, too, is David Rohde, "The New York Times"
correspondent was captured by the Taliban in Logar
province and transferred to the Haqqani network and
was kept alive.
WARE: Right.
JONES: He was actually brought across the border into
Pakistan, in the north of Waziristan --
WARE: Well, that's where he is now. The soldier, he's
in Waziristan.
ROBERTS: Do you think he's in Pakistan?
WARE: I have no doubt he's in Pakistan. That's where
Haqqani is. That's where his bases are, that's where
he trains, equips. And it's from there that he
launches his attacks. And it's all with the
tolerance, not the support but the tolerance of the
Pakistani intelligence agency.
ROBERTS: So do you expect, Seth and Michael, that
there is any way that the U.S. could launch a rescue
mission?
WARE: No, no chance.
JONES: Well, we would have to have very, very
specific information on his whereabouts. Very good
information about the security detail around him.
WARE: But you have to get Pakistan's permission. And
they are not going to give that. They are not going
to give that.
JONES: And you have to get --
ROBERTS: Bottom line, because his parents may be
watching as well -- from what you know of the Haqqani
network, do you believe his life is in danger?
WARE: I think, I firmly believe they're going to keep
him alive. Haqqani is an old-school warrior. He's one
of the greatest battle commanders that Afghanistan's
ever produced. He is well-aware of this soldier's
political value.
And as I said, he is much more valuable to them alive
than dead. It might not be pleasant. It's going to be
very, very basic. But it's not in their interest to
kill him right now.
There's nothing to be gained from it. Even the
propaganda value would be minimal because he's far
more valuable in forcing America to the table and to
give concessions.
ROBERTS: Let's hope you're right. Michael Ware, Seth
Jones and Chris Lawrence, thanks so much.