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Fareed Zakaria hosts a panel consisting of Michael (in New York), Former US Ambassador to Israel Martin Indyk (in Washington), and Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Barham Salih (in Sulaymaniyah, Iraq). They discuss the provincial elections and the way forward.
FAREED
ZAKARIA: Let's get started with our Iraq discussion.
Joining me from Sulaimaniyah, Iraq, is the deputy
prime minister of Iraq, Barham Salih. In Atlanta,
Martin Indyk, the director of the Saban Center at the
Brookings Institution, former assistant secretary of
state for Near Eastern affairs, and the author of
"Innocent Abroad," a wonderful book chronicling his
adventures in Middle East diplomacy.
And here in New York, our own Baghdad correspondent,
Michael Ware, who has traveled the globe, but spent
many, many years in Iraq.
MICHAEL WARE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes.
ZAKARIA: Welcome.
Barham, Mr. Deputy Prime Minister, let me ask you
first, what is the significance of these elections?
These are provincial elections. These are not the
national parliamentary elections. How important are
these?
BARHAM SALIH, IRAQI DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER: This is
monumental. People should not lose sight of what has
taken place here. This is messy, confusing sometimes,
but it is politics.
People are moving away from the bullet to the ballot
box. And I think this a good day for the type of
hopes that we have for Iraq, still fraught with
challenges and difficulties, but it can be done. The
distance that we have traveled is amazing and
inspiring...
ZAKARIA: I agree. I agree.
SALIH: And it is a testament to the resilience of the
people of Iraq, and also a testament to the
commitment of the United States to this process.
ZAKARIA: Michael Ware, you were pretty pessimistic
about how things would work out in Iraq. Do you feel
like you're seeing some glimmers of hope? Are you
more optimistic now?
WARE: Yes, I am, although I am still very much
holding my breath, obviously, because I can see the
grand dynamics still at play. And despite whatever
political progress or talk of reconciliation that
there's been, really, these fundamentals have not
been resolved -- far from it -- as the deputy prime
minister points out. So, I'm still waiting to see how
it plays.
And in terms of U.S. interests, America is holding
the live grenade in its hand -- of Iraq -- and the
pin is still pulled. That pin has not been put back
in.
America can not yet release its grip, so to speak,
because there's so many flashpoints that still
persist, and they're tremendously serious. And the
800-pound gorilla in this room, for example, is --
beyond Sunni-Shia reconciliation, beyond Iran, beyond
militias coming into the political process -- there's
the Arab-Kurd divide.
These huge issues have not been resolved, so this is
no time to be walking away.
ZAKARIA: Martin Indyk, let me ask you. Do you think
that people around the Arab World are looking at the
Iraqi elections and now saying, you know what? The
Sunnis are getting a fair shake, they are not being
persecuted by the majority, which is a kind of
Kurdish-Shia clique.
MARTIN INDYK, DIRECTOR, SABAN CENTER FOR MIDDLE EAST
POLICY, BROOKINGS INSTITUTION: I think there is still
a good deal of skepticism about the Iraqi experiment.
And the Arab world generally sees it through the lens
of the incredible destruction and violence that has
taken place and the sectarian warfare that has opened
up a divide, a Sunni-Shia divide, across the region.
And so, yes, there will be those small liberal voices
in the Arab world who will take heart at the way in
which the election process appears to be helping
reconciliation between Sunnis and Shias. But I think
the general response, for the time being, is that
they'll suspend judgment, at best, rather than decide
to embrace this approach.
ZAKARIA: Barham, the one Arab country that
vociferously denounced Israel was of course the Iraqi
government. The prime minister made some very strong
statements about Israel. Ayatollah Sistani, the
leader of the Shia marja made -- issued a fatwa,
actually, denouncing Israel.
Presumably, the prime minister is, of course,
sensitive to the views of the majority of Iraqis, and
particularly the majority of Sunnis and Shias.
Should we expect a democratic Iraq to be more radical
and pro-Palestinian on the Israeli-Palestinian issue,
because it will reflect the views of its people?
SALIH: Iraq is a member of the Arab League, and is
committed to the Arab peace plan. And we are no
longer a rejectionist state the way Saddam Hussein
was.
To us the priority is Iraq and Iraq's recovery. We
want to be supportive of the Palestinian plight, and
we support the legitimate Palestinian leadership.
But certainly, there was a lot of sympathy with the
plight of the Palestinian civilians, who have
suffered as a result of this episode of conflict.
ZAKARIA: Rejectionist, of course, refers to the
rejection of Israel's existence.
The way I decode that very elegant answer, Michael,
is that the deputy prime minister of Iraq is saying,
our priorities are Iraq.
And this may be the promise of democracy, that there
is less blaming external enemies, external foes and a
much greater interest in your own country. People are
going to vote for these parties in Iraq not on their
romantic stands on the Palestinian issue, but on
whether or not they can actually clean up Basra,
Mosul, et cetera.
WARE: Absolutely. I don't think there would be any
Iraqis who are casting their ballots according to a
politician's stand on Palestine.
And let's not forget here, the U.S. -- the previous
U.S. administration, grossly underrated from the
beginning the sense of Iraqi nationalism. Indeed,
that's what fueled a lot of the Sunni insurgency.
That's what we've seen help propel Muqtada al Sadr to
his position of prominence.
So, you cannot underrate Iraqi self-identity as it
exists, and Iraqi pride in their nation, and their
willingness to defend that as they see it.
ZAKARIA: Martin Indyk, what happens to the American
drawdown? Does this good news mean that the United
States can proceed with the Obama plan, which some
might of course call the Obama-Maliki plan, since the
prime minister seems to essentially endorse the
timetable that Barack Obama has put forward?
INDYK: I do think that, while the situation is still
fragile, and it will still be important for American
forces to kind of hold the ring as this political
reconciliation process goes ahead -- particularly to
national elections that will take place next year --
nevertheless, it is good news in terms of the need,
as well as the desire, to draw down the forces pretty
much on the timetable as Prime Minister Maliki had
agreed on with President Bush.
And that is good news more broadly, because the
situation in Afghanistan is deteriorating. The
president has made clear that he wants to send more
forces there.
We don't have the capabilities to do that unless we
can draw down effectively in Iraq. But the last thing
he wants to do is draw down there and have the whole
situation erupt again.
And so, therefore, I think, with so many other things
going wrong, particularly in the Middle East, Barack
Obama must be relieved today that the political
process is moving forward in a positive way. And that
will advantage the effort to draw down the troops and
free them up for uses elsewhere.
ZAKARIA: Barham Salih, this is the big question that
Americans will be wanting to hear from you. If we
draw down, do you promise to keep the peace?
SALIH: Well, I can tell you the progress is
undeniable, is tangible, and should be recognized and
should be celebrated. However, it is still fragile,
and it's still precarious. Without active American
engagement and support, the security gains and the
political gains could unravel.
There are key issues of power sharing, oil and
revenue sharing, disputed territories in Kirkuk and
other areas. Some of these fundamental issues are yet
to be resolved.
ZAKARIA: How do you do this? You say the support of
the international community. What is it that it would
take?
Because you're right. There still is not a political
deal on the core issues of -- whether it's oil, the
sharing of power, exactly how much will be held in
the center and how much will be held at the state
level.
And many of us worry that that means that when the
Americans leave, you guys are going to start fighting
about these things and fighting about them using
actual weapons.
SALIH: At the end of the day, politics is breaking
out in Iraq.
Yes, this is not your Western democracy yet. But what
has happened is also a very profound statement that
this political process is working. People are taking
part in it. ISCI, Dawa, Kurds, Arabs, Shias and
Sunnis all are playing within the rules.
WARE: Who really has renounced violence in Iraq? I
mean, the underlying fundamental building blocks of
the Iraqi political process, unfortunately, still
remains how many men-at-arms you command.
There is no key faction within the government that
does not have its own militia or paramilitary force.
That's just the nature of the beast right now.
ZAKARIA: Wait. Isn't it true that the prime
minister's party actually is the one party that
didn't have a militia, and..
WARE: This is -- this is where we come. And this is
why we see lately the prime minister has been copping
flak, because it's been argued that, by default, he's
been attempting to pull together some kind of
political alliances that effectively give him a
militia base.
As the deputy prime minister would know, for some
time over the last year, there's been lots of tension
out there with threats from the Awakening Councils
and the tribes to rise up and essentially overthrow
the Iraqi Islamic Party.
So has violence completely left the Iraqi political
process? We hope so. But that's still what
potentially underwrites the entire system.
SALIH: I want to dissent from what Michael Ware was
saying.
I am not saying that Iraq is a perfect democracy and
that we -- everybody is living by the rule of law.
Yes, there are still militias, people under arms. But
there is a significant departure from the days when
we had militias rule this country.
Two years ago or so, people were willing to concede
defeat in Anbar to al Qaeda. Al Qaeda was ruling in
Anbar. Now, Anbar is under the government control.
The militias that helped push out al Qaeda are taking
part in the electoral process. That is success. That
must be seen for what it is. This is a major, major
victory for the political process in Iraq.
ZAKARIA: I agree. It is many problems. But there is
no question, good news from Iraq, a good week for
Iraq.
And we will be right back.
Deputy Prime Minister, thank you so much. Martin
Indyk, Michael Ware, thank you.
And we will be back.