AC: "The Taliban is using
the power of perception to intimidate voters."
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Length: 5:45
LARGE (66.6 MB)
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A look at the violence in Afghanistan as the
Taliban tries to scare people out of voting this
week. Anderson Cooper talks to Michael (in New
York) and Peter Bergen (probably in DC).
ANDERSON
COOPER: We are fast approaching perhaps the most
dangerous moment in Afghanistan since American forces
first went in, more than 60,000 American forces in
harm's way two days from a presidential election,
with the Taliban going all-out to try to make it a
bloodbath. They hit a Western convoy on the main road
out of the capital, Kabul, killing at least eight,
wounding more than 50; among the dead, one soldier,
two Afghans working for the U.N.
Also today, a rocket attack on Kabul's presidential
palace -- no injuries reported in that. But two
American troops were killed in eastern Afghanistan,
three Afghans blown up a checkpoint.
And remember those purple fingers that Iraqi voters
got? Well, in Afghanistan, they are planning to do
the same. And the Taliban, they're now threatening to
chop those fingers off.
High stakes all around.
Joining us, national security analyst Peter Bergen,
who spent a lot of time in the region, and Michael
Ware as well, two veterans of the conflict.
Peter, these latest attacks -- Taliban has already
made it clear they are going to interview with the
election. Have effective have they been, do you think
can they be?
PETER BERGEN, CNN TERRORISM ANALYST: Well,
unfortunately they are somewhat effective. I mean, up
to around 10 percent of the polling places probably
aren't going to open because of Taliban intimidation.
And I think these kinds of attacks -- I was just in
Afghanistan talking to folks there, and a lot of
people advising their families, particularly if they
live outside Kabul, not to vote, because they are
concerned that, either on the way to the polling
station or coming out of there, that they will be
subject to attacks by the Taliban.
COOPER: Michael, the fact they did a rocket attack on
the presidential palace, what does that say?
MICHAEL WARE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, I think it is
symbolic, more than anything. It wasn't effective. We
have seen attacks in the capital, Kabul, before.
In fact, on that same Jalalabad road, I have
witnessed a suicide attack on an ISAF convoy. So, to
some degree, it is not new. But it is timely. It's a
reminder. The Taliban is using the power of
perception to intimidate voters.
I don't believe their power to effectively stop the
elections exists. But can they disrupt? Can they
spoil in certain areas? Can they cast a pall over it?
That is possible.
COOPER: How does the -- Peter, how does the battle
where Marines are now fighting, how is that going?
BERGEN: Well, I think, you know, according to
spokesmen for the Marines in the south, the battle is
-- you know, they haven't necessarily encountered
large numbers of the Taliban. I mean, the Taliban had
plenty of notice to leave. There have been spots
where there has been pretty intense fighting.
But we have seen the Taliban mounting attacks in the
north. So, clearly, the Taliban have a strategy. If
they know that there's going to be large attacks by
U.S. forces in the south, they are going to try to
mount other attacks, both in the north and now, as we
have seen, in the capital.
COOPER: From your perspective, Michael, how do you
see the battle?
WARE: Well, I think the battle has only just begun.
If you look the map of where the Marines and the
Brits are targeting, that is Helmand Province. That
is part of the heartland, but only part of the
heartland.
COOPER: So, basically, the Taliban has faded away in
a lot of those areas, right?
WARE: As they did against the Russians, as any
guerrilla force does. It is classic insurgent
tactics. If you face overwhelming forces, you pull
back to fight to wait for another day.
COOPER: And the fact the border in Pakistan is so
porous makes that all the easier?
WARE: Absolutely.
I mean, their lines of communication, their supply
lines in and out of Pakistan remain intact. And just
in that one province alone, Helmand, 4,000 Marines
have gone in, but they are not even halfway through
the province yet, certainly in terms of the Taliban
concentration.
There is a long way to go, if anyone thinks that we
can take Helmand Province.
COOPER: Peter, do we know -- I mean, is Karzai
expected to win this election?
BERGEN: Well, yes, because he may lose the first
round. He has to get 50 percent, in which case it
goes to the runoff. And he will almost certainly win
the second round.
But he could even win the first round, Anderson. I
would predict that that is quite possible. In the
most recent poll, he was getting 44 percent. He needs
50 percent. He has allowed the return of a warlord by
the name of Dostum, an Uzbek warlord who controls
about 10 percent of the vote. And he's cast in his
lot with Karzai. And that might well put him over the
50 percent mark, in which case, you know, it is only
one round.
COOPER: And -- and, Michael, what does a Karzai
victory mean for America?
WARE: Well, for America, this is a very complicated
election. Obviously, Karzai has been an ally of
America. He's relied on America. But he has failed to
deliver for America. I mean, his government, by
definition of any Afghan government, is a hodgepodge
of warlords, with an administration riddled with
corruption.
The fact that he needs Dostum to push him over the
line, Dostum is currently being investigated by the
Obama administration for potential crimes against
humanity.
COOPER: Right. There's allegations that they took
part in mass executions of Taliban prisoners.
WARE: Of the Taliban during the U.S. invasion.
But that is the nature of Afghan politics. But I
would say that this is an election where U.S.
strategic interests have very little to gain, but are
risking a lot or could have a lot to lose.
COOPER: Peter, how -- I mean, can one put a timetable
on this war in Afghanistan?
BERGEN: Well, Anderson, I think there's a political
timetable in the United States and other NATO
countries, which is probably about a year, which is,
if there isn't sort of progress been made -- already,
54 percent of Americans think the war was a mistake,
according to a recent poll with -- by CNN. That
number went up from 42 percent a few months ago, and
was only 9 percent in 2002.
So, you know, American -- the American public is
getting increasingly skeptical. Fifty-one House
Democrats voted against funding for the war back in
May. You know, the Republicans are certainly going to
make an issue of this if progress isn't happening in
the -- as the midterm elections in 2010 gear up.
So, I think the political timeline is about a year.
You know, to get Afghanistan on the track to
stability and relative prosperity, that is going to
take longer than a year.
COOPER: Well, long, indeed.
Peter Bergen, appreciate it.
Michael Ware, thanks very much, as always.