CB: "The way out of
Afghanistan is a political solution. The way out of
Iraq has been conceding ground to Iran."
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Length: 6:21
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Michael talks to Campbell Brown about the
situations in Iraq and Afghanistan and the
possibility of the US being able to disentangle
itself from both wars.
CAMPBELL
BROWN: In just over two hours, the people of
Afghanistan will begin risking their lives by doing
what we take for granted, voting for president. They
have already paid a high price this week, as Taliban
attacks and bombings have taken the lives of seven
Afghan election workers and six U.S. troops.
The carnage isn't confined to Afghanistan today. A
series of six explosions in Baghdad left 95 people
dead, at least 500 wounded. It is the deadliest day
in Iraq since U.S. troops pulled out of cities and
towns there.
And our Michael Ware has covered both countries
extensively for us.
MICHAEL WARE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, unfortunately.
(LAUGHTER)
BROWN: And he's with me here tonight.
It is good to have you here in person.
WARE: Yeah.
BROWN: As we said, the voting begins in Afghanistan
in just a matter of hours.
WARE: Very important.
BROWN: The Taliban doing everything possible
imaginable to try to keep people from voting.
What do you think is going to happen? And,
ultimately, what effect does it have, what bearing
does it have on the U.S. mission there?
WARE: Well, look, it's my belief that there is going
to be an election. It is not going to be pretty. It
will be a little bit messy. There may be some
violence here and there. Some people who should have
voted won't be able to vote because of the Taliban
intimidation or simply because they can't open
polling booths. There will probably be some election
irregularities. It's not an election as we know it.
There's absolutely no hope of that.
But will it be enough to give it the legitimacy that
the Afghan people want is the real question. So, it
is not going to be simple. It's going to be a little
bit messy, but I think it's going to take place.
Now, in terms of the American investment in the U.S.
mission, there is a lot riding on this election. To
some degree, it doesn't matter to America whether
Hamid Karzai is re-elected or Abdullah Abdullah gets
elected or whatever. It is just whether this can be
pulled off.
It's also going to be a measure of the Taliban's new
strength. The last election, they didn't have the
ability to disrupt the election. This time, their
ability is much more enhanced, but it is only going
to be in certain areas.
So, honestly, America has a lot to lose in this
election, and I think relatively little to gain.
BROWN: So, realistically, though, bigger picture,
what is it going to take to bring stability to
Afghanistan? Does a change in government even matter?
Does it mean anything really in terms of the big
picture?
WARE: In a sense, no, because it is still going to be
a hodgepodge of either warlords or corrupt officials.
You are still not going to have delivery of
government services to the remote regions.
I mean, look at Hamid Karzai. He has had to pull
together two of the most notorious warlords in
Afghanistan's recent history, including Dostum from
the north who is currently under investigation by the
Obama administration for killing 2,000 prisoners.
So, whoever wins, again, it is probably not going to
be a functioning administration. But that's not
really going to be the point. If you want to end the
war, this government is only going to be one piece of
that. And the way you're going to end this war is
both the Afghan government, but particularly America,
cutting a deal with the Taliban.
BROWN: Yes, we'll see if that happens.
Let me turn to Iraq here. So much talk in the sort of
post-surge era about things calming down, things
improving. Today, massive bombings.
WARE: Yes. Yes.
BROWN: The deadliest day of the year.
What is your takeaway?
WARE: Well, this is -- this is Iraq. I mean, yes,
it's the deadliest day -- 95-odd people, I believe,
is the current toll.
Well, while I was there just a few weeks ago, 80
people were killed in one day. So, what you need to
be aware of is that, yes, this is what the military
would call spectacular, spectacular attacks. They
garner high publicity, focus lots of attention. But
this is part of a broader long-running bombing that
was under way during the U.S. command of the war and
has been under way since the Iraqis took over.
It is primarily being conducted by al Qaeda and its
allies, who hope to bomb Iraq back into the bloodshed
of the sectarian civil war. But the bottom line is
that this has been going on. Now, media attention,
like the Obama administration's attention, shifted to
Afghanistan.
BROWN: Right.
WARE: In all that time, the killings continued in the
media vacuum. So, these killings have been going on.
Today is a terrible day. It is an awful tragedy, but
it is just one of many. Yes, things are better than
they were two years ago, but a lot of people are
still dying in Baghdad.
BROWN: But do you see any scenario where the U.S.
could declare success in either Iraq or Afghanistan,
frankly, under the Obama administration?
WARE: Well, the Obama administration in Iraq, on my
hypothesis, has basically applied a certain
calculation.
They are prepared to accept Iraq essentially becoming
an Iranian client state or certainly under the
influence and auspices of Iran, in return for
stability, which will then allow American withdrawal.
These bombings are by al Qaeda and Sunni Islamists.
It has got nothing to do with Iran.
That calculation allows this administration to focus
on Afghanistan. And, again, there, the way out is a
political solution, just like Iraq. The Bush
administration said, we don't deal with terrorists.
We won't talk to people with American blood on their
hands.
But within three or four years, they ended up putting
103,000 Sunni insurgents on the U.S. government
payroll. But these were insurgents who never wanted
to fight America in the first place.
And I we are going to see something very similar, not
American creating militias in Afghanistan, like they
did in Iraq. But what we are seeing already is
America positioning itself to deal, the Pakistani
intelligence agency -- who hold the keys to the
Taliban -- preparing itself to deal, and certainly
Hamid Karzai's government has been open and ready to
deal as well.
So, the way out of Afghanistan is a political
solution. The way out of Iraq has been conceding
ground to Iran.
BROWN: Michael Ware, good to have you here.
WARE: Thanks, Campbell.