TIME: Will They Strike
Again?
Monday, November 25, 2002
By NELLY SINDAYEN / MANILA; ANDREW PERRIN /
BANGKOK; SIMON ELEGANT / KUALA LUMPUR; LISA CLAUSEN /
SYDNEY;
MICHAEL WARE / KABUL;
TIM McGIRK / ISLAMABAD; MEENAKSHI GANGULY / NEW DELHI
At first sight, the video might be a routine tv ad for
a luxury hotel, the camera dutifully following a waiter
as he arrives at a room carrying a tray. But when the
guest opens his door, the waiter whips out a pistol and
calmly proceeds to blast the head off a papier-maché
dummy. In other scenes, masked fighters abseiling down
the walls of the "hotel" with grenades leave no doubt
what this is: a training manual for an assault on a
resort complex. The video, one of a batch of al-Qaeda
tapes found outside Kabul this month, is a chilling
reminder of the range of targets al-Qaeda and its
proxies like Jemaah Islamiah are preparing to attack.
With each new arrest -- last week Indonesian
investigators nabbed Bali bomber Imam Samudra while the
U.S. announced it had apprehended al-Qaeda's Persian
Gulf chief Abd al-Rahim al-Nashiri -- authorities learn
more about how to thwart global terrorism. TIME
consulted intelligence officials and security experts
for this survey of Islamic terrorist networks and the
threat level in Asia's possible target countries.
PHILIPPINES: High tension
Rocked by a slew of recent explosions and bombarded by
warnings of more to come, the Philippines these days
has something of a siege mentality. Even the gala Dec.
15 opening of the new, $500-million Ninoy Aquino
International Airport Terminal has been indefinitely
postponed by a worried President Gloria Macapagal
Arroyo. "The need to take extreme security measures
cannot be overemphasized," Transportation and
Communications Secretary Leandro Mendoza said in a
statement.
Filipinos need no reminding that they are squarely in
the sights of Jemaah Islamiah (JI), and the presence of
U.S. troops may have made the archipelago an even more
tempting target. A year ago, an explosion rocked the
Metro Railway Transit, killing 22 and injuring hundreds
of others. The attack was carried out by Indonesian
Fathur Rohman al-Ghozi, a self-confessed JI member with
links to the Philippines' two major Islamic guerrilla
groups, the MILF and the Abu Sayyaf. After his January
capture in Manila, al-Ghozi said he carried out the
bombings on the orders of JI operations commander
Riduan (Hambali) Isamuddin. Equally worrying, recent
Mindanao bombings suggest that Abu Sayyaf has returned
to its roots as a purely terrorist organization rather
than a kidnap-and-extortion gang.
Apart from obvious sites such as foreign embassies,
Philippine intelligence officials say concerns about
possible JI targets focus on a huge oil depot located
in the heart of the city, not far from Malacanang, the
presidential palace. The hit list also includes the
Philippine Stock Exchange, major shopping malls and
flyovers in Manila. Meanwhile in the south, where the
overwhelming majority of the country's more than 3
million Muslims live, hardly a week goes by without
some form of deadly attack.
How best to stop the terrorist attacks? National Police
Superintendent Robert Delfin is surprisingly
optimistic. "No matter the extent of their network, we
can monitor them. We know the personalities." Parouk
Hussin, Governor of the Autonomous Region for Muslim
Mindanao, is less sanguine. "Personalities may come and
go," he warns. "The idea's harder to kill."
By Nelly Sindayen/Manila
THAILAND: Soft targets
Thailand has many. They read like a roll call of Asia's
most popular tourist destinations: Phuket, Pattaya, Koh
Samui. Thai authorities have been quick to hose down
speculation that the kingdom is under threat of a
Bali-style attack and have criticized Western
governments for issuing travel advisories warning their
citizens to avoid, or to take extreme caution, in areas
where foreigners congregate. Yet the country is taking
anti-terrorism measures. Bar patrons are being frisked,
police patrols have been stepped up in places like
Phuket, and soldiers are boarding boats for searches
off southern Thailand. Even the World Organization of
the Scout Movement (WOSM) has left nothing to chance.
In late December more than 24,000 scouts will arrive in
Thailand to take part in the 20th World Scout Jamboree,
to be held at a naval base. More than 1,000 officers
from Thailand's army, navy and police force will
provide security during the two-week long Jamboree.
"Though we do not consider it very likely, we have done
our utmost to prevent a terrorist attack," says Lutz
Kuhnen, assistant director of WOSM's risk-management
unit. "But nothing is 100% safe." The government is
most worried, say security analysts, about the
country's lucrative tourism industry, which sees the
arrival of more than 10 million visitors each year and
contributes invaluably to the country's bottom line.
There is no doubt that the embassy travel warnings have
stung the industry. On the island resort of Phuket
bookings are down 15% on the previous year and hotel
cancellations are on the rise, a trend reported
countrywide.
Fueling the unease is a spate of troublesome reports
from the country's Muslim-dominated south. The region
has been blighted this year by a series of bomb and
arson attacks on schools and hotels and a rash of hits
on local cops. Both government and intelligence
agencies believe the violence is linked to the region's
extortion and smuggling rackets, not international
terrorists groups. But no one is taking any chances.
While publicly dismissing the possibility of an
imminent strike the government has at the same time
bolstered security in some of the most popular tourist
haunts, at airports and around its porous borders. "We
are not a target for international terrorists," insists
government spokesman Sita Divari, but he adds: "We are
conscious and prepared."
By Andrew Perrin/Bangkok
SINGAPORE: Strict measures
Singapore's much-vaunted internal security apparatus
still hasn't quite recovered from the shock of
discovering a well-advanced al-Qaeda plot to detonate
seven large truck bombs at embassies and other key
sites in the city-state late last year. "They were
absolutely horrified at how close the plan was to
execution," says a source who has worked closely with
the Singapore authorities on terrorism issues. Not that
the authorities didn't swing into action with
characteristic efficiency once the plot was uncovered.
With nearly 40 alleged militants now in prison,
Singapore officials insist there is no longer "any
credible threat" from Jemaah Islamiah cells inside the
island republic. But as terror expert Zachary Abuza
points out, ultimately, a successful attack in
Singapore remains top of the wish list for JI, even if
achieving that takes years. "Singapore has enormous
symbolic importance as the capitalist center of the
region," says Abuza.
Such concerns were highlighted earlier this year when
Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong revealed that Mas Selamat
Kastari, the "most dangerous" of the 12 or so members
of the Singapore Jemaah Islamiah cell who escaped
arrest and fled the country, had been planning an
attempt to crash a plane into Singapore's Changi
Airport. The airport is now reportedly protected by
anti-aircraft missiles, as are the huge refinery
facilities on the island's southwest section of Jurong,
where multinationals such as Shell and Exxon Mobil
maintain large facilities. In mid-October Singapore
deployed units of its armored division around the area
as further safeguards.
By Simon Elegant/Kuala Lumpur
MALAYSIA: Meeting point
Malaysia can justifiably boast that it's ahead of the
pack when it comes to cracking down on Islamic
militancy. A month before the Sept. 11 attacks, police
began making arrests, to date rounding up some 63
alleged terrorist wannabes. But while there's no doubt
that Kuala Lumpur is now committed to crushing
militancy within its borders, it is Malaysia's dirty
little secret that years of turning a blind eye to the
activities of radical clerics like alleged Jemaah
Islamiah head Abubakar Ba'asyir allowed Islamic
radicalism to put down deep roots in the Malaysian
Muslim community. There is no arguing, either, with the
fact that Malaysia was used by the likes of Abubakar
and his alleged henchman Hambali as their haven for
over a decade and eventually as a rendezvous for both
regional and global militant conclaves organized by JI.
Most notorious was the January 2000 meeting attended by
up to 12 key JI and al-Qaeda figures, including Tawfiq
bin Atash, top suspect in the bombing of the U.S.S.
Cole in Yemen in October 2000, two of the Pentagon
hijackers, another key al-Qaeda figure Ramzi
Binalshibhwho was captured in Karachi on Sept. 11 this
yearand, of course, Hambali himself.
With the arrests continuinga senior militant was
detained on Sept. 27 and police say they are still
pursuing scores of othersthe authorities in Malaysia
are "reasonably confident they have taken all possible
measures to minimize the danger of an attack,"
according to one official source in Kuala Lumpur. A
Western diplomat points out, however, that Malaysia's
past record and continuing role as a meeting place for
Islamic radicals (the country's policy of not requiring
visas for visitors from Islamic countriesaimed at
boosting tourism from the Middle Easthas yet to see any
substantial changes) may ironically provide it some
measure of protection against terrorism. The diplomat
comments: "These people are not stupid. They've got a
good thing going in Malaysia. They don't want to mess
that up by bombing some expat hangout."
By Simon Elegant/Kuala Lumpur
AUSTRALIA: Southern front
"I'm a wrecknervous and shaky," one woman told the
media after police wearing flak jackets and goggles
raided her neighbors, a Muslim family living in the
Perth suburb of Thornlie. Her jitters have been
contagious in the uneasy weeks following the Bali
attacks. First came the early November raids on houses
around the country, part of an Australian Security
Intelligence Organization push to uncover possible
connections between Australians and Jemaah Islamiah.
That was followed on Nov. 18 by the charging of one of
the men raided, a west-Australian convert to Islam,
with conspiring to blow up Israeli diplomatic missions
in Australia. Jack Roche has protested his innocence,
despite giving remarkably frank interviews to The
Australian newspaper before his arrest describing his
training in Afghanistan in the use of explosives and a
meeting in Malaysia with terrorist chief Hambali to
discuss the recruitment of JI operatives back home.
But it was the Australian government's upgrading of the
state of alert, the day after Roche's arrest, that
raised awareness of the domestic terror threat. The
government of Prime Minister John Howard said its new
informationlinked neither to the raids nor to Roche's
casewas "general and non-specific as to target and
timing" but suggested a terrorist strike could hit
Australia over the next few months. In what is normally
a wind-down time of year, with the summer holidays
approaching, Australians are now being urged to stay
ultra vigilant.
By Lisa Clausen/Sydney
AFGHANISTAN:
Square one
Terrorism lives on. Peacekeepers in Kabul repeatedly
stumble on banks of rockets aimed at their bases, the
airport or the U.S. embassy. A week ago, Afghan
security forces scuppered an attempt to destroy the
main power station. American bases are rocketed an
average of three times a week; four were recently
attacked in one night. Yet another special forces
convoy was ambushed on Nov 21. Two cabinet ministers
have been assassinated this year, and on Sept. 5 an
attempt was made on President Hamid Karzai's life.
All this is happening because al-Qaeda fighters are
venturing out from training camps just over the border
in Pakistan and from toeholds inside Afghanistan, and
Taliban remnants are regrouping. Meanwhile, rural
Afghans have grown disenchanted with empty promises of
increased aid. Living conditions have improved little
since the Taliban's collapse, providing fresh recruits
for al-Qaeda and Taliban sanctuaries in Pakistan. Until
the harsh economic conditions are alleviated and
Karzai's vision of a new, democratic Afghanistan is
fulfilled, terror will persist.
By Michael Ware/Kabul
PAKISTAN: Den of terror
In Pakistan, al-Qaeda is thriving. Its tactic has been
to contract out its terror work to local hirelingsand
there are a multitude. Police are investigating links
between Osama bin Laden's network and a spate of
anti-Western attacks this past year: the kidnapping and
murder of American journalist Daniel Pearl, bomb
attacks in Karachi on the U.S. consulate and on a bus
full of French submarine technicians and massacres of
Christians. President Pervez Musharraf pledged full
cooperation to the U.S. in its search for al-Qaeda. But
those orders are not always trickling down to the
middle-ranking officers in his army and intelligence
corps who sympathized with, and had close ties to, the
Taliban regime.
For now, Pakistan is probably more of an actual
terrorist sanctuary than a prime terrorist target.
(Among other wanted extremists, Indonesian Hambali,
Jemaah Islamiah's operations chief, has also reportedly
sought refuge there.) The last thing al-Qaeda and its
local supporters want is for Musharraf to have an
excuse to crack down on the Islamic radical parties.
After the strong showing in the Oct. 10 general
elections, the religious parties will control
Baluchistan and Northwest Frontier Provinceshideouts
for al-Qaeda and Taliban fugitives. These radical
clerics may either put a stop to the FBI's
investigations in these provinces outright, or at least
thwart raids on al-Qaeda strongholds by refusing to let
local police take part.
By Tim McGirk/Islamabad
INDIA: Watching and waiting
Indian investigators say the country is always at risk
because al-Qaeda needs an existing support structure
for communications and sanctuary, easily provided by
Pakistan-based extremists fighting a jihad in Kashmir.
The failed attack on Parliament last December, which
ended with 14 dead including the five suicide
terrorists, was an example of Kashmiri separatist
terrorism. Now, security agencies are bracing for the
next big strike, which they fear could target Western
government or business interests. "We don't know what
and where it will be," says an Indian intelligence
official, "but it will certainly be dramatic."
There is another possible impetus for an attack.
Gujaratis go to the polls in mid-December, and the
ruling Hindu nationalist BJP party's agenda is a barely
disguised campaign against Muslims. A strike would
serve as a warning that Muslims will not be cowed.
"Once an attack happens, we will all say, 'That is so
obvious, why didn't we think of it,'" warns the
official. "That is what people are saying about Bali
now."
By Meenakshi Ganguly/New Delhi