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Michael is still in London, and talks to Wolf about the Basra violence and how it portends what could happen if US forces withdraw from Iraq. Basically it boils down to this: the Iranian-influenced Iraqi government is attacking Muqtada al-Sadr's Mehdi militia because he (Muqtada) is not in lockstep with Iran.
(If we resolved things here in the US the same way, Hillary's people would be going after Obama's people with assault weapons, not media attacks. Which I guess would make McCain the Sunni; waiting on the sidelines while the Dems destroy each other.)
Wolf also talks to Ed Henry, who gives a rundown of the current situation and then the president's version of it.
WOLF
BLITZER: The Iraqi city of Basra in the south is
caught right now in a violent power struggle. A
potentially pivotal moment for the Iraqi mission and
for U.S. troops who are stationed there. On this
fourth day of fierce clashes, the Prime Minister
Nouri Al-Maliki is vowing to fight until the end --
his words -- against the Shiite militias loyal to the
radical anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr.
Tens of thousands of al-Sadr's followers are
protesting recent raids and detentions, calling
al-Maliki a new dictator. In Baghdad militants fired
mortars and rockets at Iraqi security forces, U.S.
troops and civilians.
A U.S. government official was killed in the U.S.
protected international zone, the so-called Green
Zone in Baghdad and now U.S. embassy workers in Iraq
are being told to stay inside secure buildings. All
of this as President Bush gave a wide-ranging speech
about the situation in Iraq.
CNN's Michael Ware spent years in Iraq, is standing
by in London. We're going to talk with him in a
moment.
But let's get the latest from Ed Henry, who has been
watching the president's speech earlier in the day.
The president did challenge the Iraqi government to
step up. Update our viewers on his message.
ED HENRY, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: That's
right, Wolf. The president did talk about this
violence in Basra. He tried to cast it as a positive
development in the long run because it shows the
Iraqi government stepping up. But that's far from
reality right now.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
HENRY (voice-over): Another day of chaos in Basra.
Shia militiamen sabotaging an oil pipeline as the
Iraqi military's attempt to regain control of the
southern port city has stalled. Meanwhile at the
National Museum of the Air Force in Dayton, President
Bush continued to tout progress from the surge,
trying to make the case the violence in Basra is
actually building on that success.
BUSH: Prime Minister Maliki's bold decision, and it
was a bold decision, to go after the illegal groups
in Basra shows his leadership. It also shows the
progress the Iraqi security forces have made during
the surge.
HENRY: But the president also seemed to be prepping
the American people for a spike in violence as the
Mehdi army of Muqtada al Sadr pushes back against the
Iraqi forces.
BUSH: This operation is going to take some time to
complete. The enemy will try to fill the TV screens
with violence. But the ultimate result will be this:
terrorists and extremists in Iraq will know they have
no place in a free and democratic society.
HENRY: Another possible result, the new violence
could spark an unraveling of the cease fire with the
Mehdi army that had stabilized the situation on the
ground. Nevertheless, the president focused on
economic and political gains made by the Iraqis. Even
using a sports anecdote he heard from General Ray
Odierno, the former number two commander in Iraq who
just returned home.
BUSH: He flew over Baghdad 15 months ago and he
couldn't see a single soccer game. On his final
flight last month he counted more than 180. It is a
sign that the surge is working and civil society is
beginning to grow. It is a sign normalcy is returning
back to Iraq.
(END OF VIDEOTAPE)
HENRY: Now, just as interesting is what the president
is not saying. He's not talking about bringing home a
large number of U.S. troops later in the year, and
officials here are not knocking down speculation that
Mr. Bush might leave office without another major
U.S. troop cut on the ground in Iraq.
Obviously if this violence on the ground continues to
grow, it's going to be that much harder for the U.S.
to pull out more troops. As Mr. Bush has said over
and over, he does not want to lose the progress the
U.S. has already made -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Thanks very much.
Ed Henry, he's over at the White House.
Let's go to Michael Ware. He's joining us from
London.
Michael, you've spent years watching the situation in
Iraq unfold. On this, the day the president was
touting progress, it looks like the situation is
deteriorating, especially in Basra, in the south, in
Sadr City, and the problems for Nouri al-Maliki's
government not coming from Iraqi Sunni insurgents but
from fellow Shiites, Muqtada al-Sadr's militias. What
is going on?
MICHAEL WARE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, what's going
on is the future of Iraq without U.S. forces. Welcome
to it. You think Lebanon in the '80s was bad? Many
people say that the future of Iraq with a timetable
for withdrawal will be exactly what you're seeing
now. We're seeing Iranian-backed Shia faction
fighting Iranian-backed Shia faction.
Now I don't care who in the administration wants to
tout this as a positive step. The end result of this,
whether you dress it up as a law and order crusade,
or whether you dress it up as a successful military
operation led by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who
does not share Washington's agenda, the end effect of
all of this is that what's happening is a
consolidation of Iranian influence.
BLITZER: So what you're suggesting is doesn't make
any difference if the U.S. troops leave now or if
they leave a year from now or five years from now,
the end result is going to be chaos and civil strife
in Iraq?
WARE: Well, five years from now maybe Iran will have
consolidated its gains on power and it won't have to
induce crisis. But put it this way, Wolf, America is
still in South Korea.
Now if you think American troops can withdraw next
year, then someone is being delusional. The only
thing that is keeping these groups apart, the only
thing that's keeping the Sunni/Shia from sectarian
warfare, the only thing that can possibly contain
this Shia-on-Shia violence, all of which is backed by
Iran, is the presence of American forces.
They provide what limited buffer they can do. Now,
the Brits in the south of Iraq who technically once
owned Basra have now retreated to the air base in
that city. They're unable to project combat power or
influence. So you're seeing the natural course of
events.
BLITZER: Is there any chance, do you believe that
Nouri al-Maliki's forces can crush Muqtada al-Sadr's
Shiite militia?
WARE: Well that's kind of a moot point in many ways.
Let's look at it this way: Sayid Muqtada al-Sadr
still has enormous influence on the street. Why?
Because he's an Iraqi nationalist.
His main selling point is the fact that, "under
Saddam I didn't leave. Unlike all these Iraqis who
fled to Tehran. My father died, my uncle died..." He
has great sway on the street. Now once upon a time he
had great sway with the paramilitary force. But
that's been eroded by the Iranians. The best of his
commanders, the most hard-lined, have been cleaved
away, retrained, rearmed, refunded and joined with
Lebanese Hezbollah and sent back in the field to kill
Americans. The Muqtada al-Sadr of today is not the
Muqtada al-Sadr of 2004. And Nouri al-Maliki does not
see him as a partner.
Now, what America has been doing by default and by
the admission of American commanders is essentially
consolidating the influence of Iran. Why? Because
intelligence against many of these forces in Basra
and Baghdad and elsewhere, against the Mehdi army
loyal to Muqtada al-Sadr is generated by who? The
Iraqi government. The Iraqi government is dominated
by factions that are heavily influenced by Iran. So
they're eroding the power of Muqtada to the benefit
of pro-Iranian factions.
BLITZER: All right.
WARE: So that's what we're seeing, Wolf.
BLITZER: It's not a very pretty picture, indeed.
Michael, thanks very much.
WARE: Not at all.
BLITZER: Michael Ware will be in Washington in the
coming days, we'll talk with him here.