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Michael (in NY) and Peter Bergen (in DC) talk to Campbell Brown about what President-elect Obama will be able to do with the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Both agree that just pulling troops out of the former and shifting them to the latter is not the answer.
CAMPBELL
BROWN: As a candidate, Barack Obama was pretty blunt
about Osama bin Laden. He wanted him, dead or alive.
Tonight, we are getting a look at how Obama plans to
bring him down.
And here now with a NO BIAS, NO BULL assessment of
president-elect Obama's approach to the war on
terror, CNN national security analyst Peter Bergen
and our Baghdad correspondent, Michael Ware, who is
here with me in New York.
Welcome to both of you.
Peter, let me start with you here.
President-elect Obama made it pretty clear that his
priority is going to be to refocus on Afghanistan. He
plans to deploy more troops and devote military
resources there. Is that going to be enough to turn
things around?
PETER BERGEN, CNN TERRORISM ANALYST: Well, but he is
constrained by the fact that the U.S. military is
very stretched right now.
The Bush administration is moving forward two combat
brigades in the spring. But even if President Obama
comes into office on January 20, 2009, says, I'm
going to pull a lot of people out of Iraq, it's
easier said than done. Redeploying these units takes
several months. And of course Afghanistan is not just
a matter of sending a lot more soldiers there.
It's a security problem which isn't going to be
solved by thousands of new American troops on the
ground. It is something that will involve reaching
out to tribal militias, things that the Bush
administration has been thinking about, things that
General Petraeus at CENTCOM has been thinking about,
and things no doubt that Obama's advisers have been
thinking about.
So, it's part of a larger strategy. It's not just
more American boots on the ground. It's the right
kinds of boots: special forces, advisers to the
Afghan army and Afghan police -- Campbell.
BROWN: But what does that mean in Iraq, Michael? If
you are shifting resources, troops in particular,
from Iraq to Afghanistan, what does that do on the
ground in Iraq?
MICHAEL WARE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, it's going to
erode what kind of leverage you have in Iraq. And
you're really struggling with leverage as it is now
-- 140,000 American combat troops have not deterred
the warring parties so far.
I mean, one side was bought off. America's natural
ally in Iraq, the Sunnis, who were fighting America,
are now, 100,000 of them, on the U.S. government
payroll.
BROWN: Right.
WARE: Being handed over to a government that hates
them. And they hate their government.
Meanwhile, you have got the Iranian militias and
other factions there. And so the more you erode the
number of troops, the less effective America is going
to be at keeping all these sides apart or affecting
American foreign policy.
BROWN: So, the flexibility may not actually be there.
Peter, let me ask you about this other point. Obama
has made capturing Osama bin Laden a huge priority.
Should it be? And do you have any reason to believe
that president-elect Obama would have an easier time
than at this than George W. Bush did?
BERGEN: I don't think there is any reason why
President Obama would have an easier time than
President Bush. It's after all seven years after
9/11. There hasn't been information about bin Laden's
exact whereabouts since the Battle of Tora Bora in
December of 2001.
Finding one person in the world is not a particularly
easy thing to do. He's in the Northwest Frontier
Province of Pakistan almost certainly, which is a bit
like saying I know that somebody is in Virginia. It
is not a very useful piece of information, unless you
have a much more precise set of coordinates.
So, yes, he will make it priority, but the law of
averages suggests that bin Laden, who, after all, is
only age 51 right now, isn't suffering any kind of
life-threatening illnesses, may well survive for
several more years. He isn't making mistakes. He's
not communicating on satellite or cell or radio. So,
there is no signals intelligence. People in his
immediate circle don't seem to be inclined to pick up
cash rewards.
He is a human being. He will make a mistake
eventually, but so far that hasn't happened, and that
won't change with a new Obama administration --
Campbell.
BROWN: One thing that may change, though, is his
strategy in terms of how to deal with the region
overall. He has talked about reaching out to Iran,
reaching out to Syria, having conversations in order
to find new ways to deal with the war in Iraq and
Afghanistan.
How will those overtures be received? And give us a
sense for how he is perceived right now in that part
of the world.
WARE: Well, certainly, he is perceived as a better
option, per se.
But that's why it's also going to be important for
president-elect Obama as soon as possible to sort of
metaphorically flex his muscle as commander in chief,
so he's not seen as weak-kneed and therefore
vulnerable.
Meanwhile, what we saw in Iraq that worked so well
was America come to terms with the Sunni insurgency.
Now we're hearing rumblings about coming to terms
with elements of the Taliban in Pakistan and
Afghanistan. So, doing that with Iran, which is far
more powerful than any of those other two, is
something that we simply have to look at.
And I have sat down with the Iranian ambassador in
Baghdad. Now, the American ambassador, Ryan Crocker,
and the Iranian ambassador are the only two American
-- well, the only two who have spoken between these
two governments since 1979.
BROWN: Right.
WARE: And the Iranian ambassador is there to talk,
but he's basically saying, what have you got to put
on the table?
BROWN: All right. A lot more to talk about. I'm sure
we will be seeing you again, Michael Ware, and Peter
Bergen, both of you, thanks very much. Appreciate
it.