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O'BRIEN: Barack Obama's policy on the Iraq war has
been heard loud and clear: end the battle, bring home
the troops. Now he's going to Iraq and a possible
policy shift is up for discussion. Our experts ready
to talk about that tonight.
Cliff May is the president of the Foundation for
Defense of Democracy. It's a right-leaning think tank
that supports the troop surge. Back again, CNN
political analyst, Roland Martin, and here in the
ELECTION CENTER, CNN's Michael Ware who has reported
for us extensively from Iraq.
Gentlemen, I welcome you all.
Michael, let's begin with you. You know, the McCain
camp has been hitting Obama very hard on Iraq, in a
lot of ways forced his hand into making this Iraq
trip. What do you think the Senator should look for,
Senator Obama should be looking for when he goes on
this trip?
MICHAEL WARE, CNN BAGHDAD CORRESPONDENT: Well, he
wants to get as much of as a reality check as he can
possibly hope to have. Yet look, let's be frank,
these congressional delegations, these high-powered
visits --
O'BRIEN: All the time.
WARE: They're so sanitized, they're so clinical. They
can't afford to expose these people to any real
danger anyway. So, they're going to get a very
filtered, very skewed view. I mean, they're not on
the streets. Even the troops don't get the real view.
O'BRIEN: So what should he do to get the real view?
WARE: That's going to be very difficult for him. I
think he'd have to think outside of the box. I think
he'd have to be prepared to sit down or take some
time during his visit within the sanctuary of the
Green Zone to speak to some people who are not on the
official itinerary, people that the military are not
herding towards him. Or perhaps some military voices
that aren't being pushed forward, some Iraqi voices
that he wouldn't otherwise hear from, at least so he
can have a taste.
O'BRIEN: Roland, Barack Obama has been very specific
from early on about what he planned to do in Iraq.
And now you hear from, I think it was today, David
Axelrod, his chief strategist, was talking about, you
know, not being wedded to that, taking into account
events on the ground. Is that just rational or is
that just building up for the flip-flop?
ROLAND MARTIN, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: No, I mean, it is
rational. I mean, you have to examine what is
happening now. It's sort of like saying, well, a year
from now, I'm going to eat this for breakfast. Well,
guess what, you go to your doctor, your doctor say
you got heart disease, might be changing what you
eat. You have to keep that available -
O'BRIEN: But I'm not sure if that analogy -- Roland,
let me stop you. Because I'm not sure that that
analogy works. Isn't the analogy more like, you say,
I'm going to eat such and such for breakfast, I'm
going to eat such and such for breakfast. Well, now
maybe not so much.
MARTIN: Until your your doctor says different.
O'BRIEN: And everyone else around you says, huh,
isn't that a flip-flop?
MARTIN: Until you get a conflicting advice by saying,
you know what, not a smart idea. I'm going to change.
But here's the issue that I think that he's going to
emphasize when it comes to the war. President Bush
wants to spend $245 billion this year and next year.
The American people are not just saying pull the
troops out because they're our troops, they're also
looking at the cost of the war and how it's affecting
our spending here as well. So it's not just our
troops.
O'BRIEN: Cliff, let me ask you a question, to what
degree is the Senator really risking eroding his
support, his strong support, a lot of it built on the
war if in fact he goes and starts taking some of the
words from Axelrod?
CLIFF MAY, FOUNDATION FOR DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACIES:
He'll certainly absorb some damage from the far left
that really does not want the U.S. to prevail in Iraq
against al Qaeda and the Iranian-backed militias. But
he will be reaching out to the middle which he really
has absolutely has to do. Look, it is expensive to
fight a war. But it is more expensive to lose a war
than to win a war.
The Petraeus mission has been remarkably successful.
Iraq now is a nation in which where you have a
government. And al Qaeda has been beaten. Al Qaeda
said this was the most important battlefront in its
global war against us and they are being destroyed
there. It is a -
O'BRIEN: Michael Ware is literally rolling his eyes
as you speak, Cliff.
WARE: At both of you, for the record.
O'BRIEN: At both of them, why the eye roll?
MAY: Well, you can roll your eyes, but Anbar
province, Michael, as you well know, was declared an
Islamic emirate by al Qaeda and now Anbar is one of
the safest there parts of the country. Do you agree?
WARE: Too true. And the Sunni insurgents, once they
went on the U.S. payroll were most effective at
assassinating al Qaeda and that's what America paid
them to do. But there's long-term implications here.
You now have 113,000 Sunni insurgents who are
essentially a U.S.-backed militia that are outside
and opposed to the U.S.-backed government, which is
actually run by Iran. Now, that's going to have
long-term implication. Now, as you know --
MAY: As you know, Michael, also, Maliki has been very
good about taking on, in Basra and other parts of the
country, the Iranian-backed militias, it's been -
WARE: Oh, please, you have got to -- you have to be
joking.
O'BRIEN: Stop right there. We're going to pick it up,
we're going to pick it up on the other side. No
question that the condition on the grounds in Iraq
have changed. So should the policy change? We'll talk
about that in just a moment right here in the
ELECTION CENTER. Stay with us.
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O'BRIEN:
Even if things get better in Iraq, the war remains
wildly unpopular here at home and that makes the
political situation even more complicated. So back to
talk about that with Cliff May, Roland Martin,
Michael Ware.
Michael, let's, before we left, Cliff was talking
about -- I think he said Maliki taking on the
Iranian-backed militias in Basra.
WARE: Yep. Now look, that's the way that people are
trying to sell what's been happening in Iraq but
let's face reality. The government that Maliki heads
is comprised of Iranian-backed factions. I mean,
General David Petraeus himself confirms that the
president of Iraq is an agent of influence for Iran.
So all we're seeing is one Iranian-backed faction
tussling with another Iranian-backed faction vying
for political power.
O'BRIEN: Does it make sense, then, Cliff, to say,
okay, things have gotten better, now it's time to go?
MAY: Yes, it's time to go slowly. What I would say
Obama needs to do is to sit down and talk with
General Petraeus and General Odierno and say to them,
at what the rate can we get out safely and manage to
sustain all the progress that we have, rather than
give it up, because we've paid for the progress, and
there has been progress, I think even Michael would
agree with that. That progress we must not simply
sacrifice for a timetable and that can be done --
Petraeus and Odierno are the ones who can help him do
that. He needs to show that he will listen to his
generals.
MARTIN: First, he said -- when I interviewed him
right on CNN, he said, I win the presidency, first
agenda in January, I'm sitting down with the Joint
Chiefs of Staff, do exactly what you just said. So
that's not out of the ordinary. And so, look, this is
...
MAY: Roland, then.
MARTIN: ... still unpopular with the American people.
And at some point, though, the Iraqis do to assume
control of their own country. We can not be big
brother forever.
MAY: Roland, Roland, you're right, and they are
assuming control little by little. He has not yet --
Obama has not yet talked with Petraeus --
MARTIN: No, not little -- we need more --
MAY: And Odierno and that's who he needs to talk with
and he hasn't been in Iraq since the surge began.
O'BRIEN: Guys, I'm going to give the final word to
Michael Ware because he's the only person not yelling
right now, which even makes me love you even more,
Michael.
WARE: That's a rarity. I mean, and one thing I'd like
to hear from Senator Obama, it's fine to have this
notion to pull the troops home. I mean who isn't
tired? Who doesn't want the troops to come home?
O'BRIEN: And you do the math, we need the money.
WARE: Right, but I want to hear Senator Obama say
he's prepared to pull those troops out while listing
all the costs to American power, interest and status,
not to mention the slaughter that almost certainly
will follow. Then he can say that he's ready to pull
the troops out. Let's hear him say he knows what it
is really going to cost.
O'BRIEN: We'll see what he says. Michael Ware joining
us tonight. Also, Cliff and Roland. Thanks, guys. I
appreciate it. That's it for "Election Center"
tonight.