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The Status of Forces Agreement remains a central sticking point in Iraq, and both Michael and Peter Bergen talk to Anderson about that and the odds of our forces in Afghanistan tracking down Osama bin Laden (pretty much zero, since he's in Pakistan.) So what will President-elect Obama do?
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VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: People said, you weren't afraid?
Of course I was afraid. Of course. Everybody is
afraid. But, when you have got a job to do, and it's
a big job, and it's an important job, and it's a
God-given job, then you do it without fear.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We are honoring the veterans that
have gone before us, both past and present, both
living and -- and gone.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I have done a lot of things in my
life, and I have worn a lot of hats, but none of them
was more important than this one.
PRESIDENT GEORGE BUSH: Thank you for your courage.
Thank you for your sacrifice, and thank you for
standing up when your nation needed you most.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANDERSON COOPER: President Bush today, his final
Veterans Day in office.
It is the seventh Veterans Day since American troops
began fighting in Afghanistan, the fifth since the
Iraq war began -- both wars about to become
president-elect Obama's problem.
And, tonight, the Associated Press is reporting the
Taliban posted a message on a Web site they often
use, urging Obama to withdraw troops from both
countries.
Let's dig deeper with CNN's national security analyst
Peter Bergen and CNN's own Michael Ware.
Michael, let's talk about Iraq.
President-elect Obama has talked about withdrawing
troops within 16 months. It's actually now much more
in line with the Iraqi government's position.
MICHAEL WARE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, it is, and
indeed the Bush administration's position.
Right now, Washington and Baghdad are desperately
trying -- well, certainly on Washington's part -- to
thrash out an agreement that will allow the
continuing presence of U.S. troops. The clock is
ticking down until New Year's Eve. That's when the
U.N. mandate for the U.S. troops runs out.
Right now, we're at stalemate. Indeed, the Iraqi
government spokesman today just said that the U.S. is
not doing enough, and they expect the U.S. to offer
more.
So, what we're seeing is an enormously complex
situation, where America desperately needs something
to help break this deadlock. And, in the meantime,
you see the insurgency making announcements today,
calling on their forces to increase the attacks to
overturn this agreement.
COOPER: Peter, there had been talk about leaving --
even president-elect Obama during the campaign had
talked about leaving a residual force in place in
Iraq. How long would that remain there? And do we
have any sense of how big a force would be required?
PETER BERGEN, CNN TERRORISM ANALYST: Well, when he
was candidate, Obama talked about this residual
force, you know, counterterrorism mission, protecting
the largest embassy in history, these kinds of
things, but he was pretty careful not to say what
that residual force would actually involve, because,
clearly, the anti-war base of the Democratic Party
isn't necessarily going to be happy when they find
out that the residual force might be something
between 30,000 and 60,000 soldiers.
That's the level that U.S. military commanders are
likely to recommend to the incoming Obama
administration in terms of the residual force that
should be left. But, as Michael has pointed out, all
this is, in a sense, moot, because the Status of
Forces Agreement between the Iraqis and the United
States has yet to be agreed upon, and, in fact, is
very unlikely to be agreed upon until the new Obama
administration comes in.
But there's one big sticking point, which is, the
Iraqis really want a date certain for all American
soldiers to pull out. And, of course, a residual
force is not something that most Iraqi politicians
will allow themselves to at least publicly sign on
for.
So, there's a great deal of uncertainty going
forward. And when that deadline expires on New
Year's, you know, theoretically, at least, U.S.
soldiers will have to be confined to their bases, if
there isn't some sort of agreement, if the U.N.
Security Council doesn't come in and say, we're going
to extend that U.N. mandate by several months, which
is plausible.
COOPER: And, in simplest terms, the idea was -- or at
least in some quarters, was to take -- transfer the
troops who are Iraq, move them to Afghanistan. But
it's not that simple.
WARE: No, it's far from that simple.
And if you're looking at throwing troops at the
problem in Afghanistan, that's simply not enough. The
so-called surge that has delivered so much success in
Iraq was much more than the 30,000 reinforcements
sent to the Iraqi capital.
And, in Afghanistan, the terrain there, the mountains
on the end of the Himalayas swallows entire infantry
divisions whole. So, just picking people up from Iraq
will not only leave a vacuum in that conflict, but
throwing them at Afghanistan simply won't work. And
that's why we're hearing people like General Petraeus
talking about talking to elements of the Taliban.
COOPER: Yes.
And, Peter, in "The Washington Post" today, it
reporting that Obama is planning a more regional
approach to Afghanistan, perhaps even this dialogue
between Afghan government and what are termed as
reconcilable elements of the Taliban.
BERGEN: Yes. And, certainly, General Petraeus has
talked about that. The Bush administration is doing
its own review, obviously, in the dying days of the
administration, is going to be looking at that.
And there's really no other option, because, as
Michael pointed out, even if you send several
thousand American soldiers to Afghanistan, that's not
a game-changer. A game-changer is bringing in people
who used to be shooting at you and trying to get them
on your side, maybe put them on the payroll, as
happened in Iraq.
Obviously, Afghanistan is different. There's
different details that would have to be involved,
different structures, but, nonetheless, taking the
Iraqi model to some degree and seeing if it can work
in Afghanistan.
COOPER: Obama also reportedly intends to renew the
commitment to hunt down Osama bin Laden. I think a
lot of Americans think that all our troops in
Afghanistan are doing is looking for Osama bin Laden.
But that's the least thing they're doing, it seems
like.
WARE: Absolutely.
I mean, they're fighting a resurgent Taliban. They're
trying to win the hearts and minds of the Afghan
villagers, who have seen so little produced since the
fall of the Taliban. And, ultimately, if you want to
find Osama bin Laden, according to America's own
intelligence community, the place to look is not
Afghanistan.
COOPER: Pakistan.
WARE: He's in Pakistan. He's in the Northwest
Frontier Province.
And, indeed, a GAO report that came out in May this
year said that, not only is al Qaeda senior
leadership sitting there in northwest Pakistan, but
it's also reconstituted its ability to strike the
U.S. homeland. So, that's quite a promise from the
president-elect.
COOPER: All right, two major issues, two wars we're
fighting.
Peter Bergen, thank you.
Michael Ware, thanks as well.