Click
photo to play
Length: 5:41
WOLF BLITZER: Just hours
ago, the United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan
warned that Iraq could be on the brink of a
full-scale civil war. Annan says Iraq and its leaders
are at a crossroads.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KOFI ANNAN, UN SECRETARY GENERAL: If they can address
the needs and common interests of all Iraqis, the
promise of peace and prosperity is still within
reach. But if current patterns of alienation and
violence persist much longer, there is a grave danger
that the Iraqi state will break down possibly in the
midst of a full- scale civil war.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BLITZER: The comments come on a day where violence
around the country claimed more than 40 lives. More
of those half of those fatalities came in a pair of
suicide bombings in Ramadi and the northern Iraqi
city of Tal Afar. CNN correspondent Michael Ware is
in Baghdad.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BLITZER: Joining us now from Baghdad, our
correspondent Michael Ware. Michael, we're getting
very close to the start of Ramadan, what, only about
a week or so off. What if any impact do you sense
this will have on the insurgency, the sectarian
violence?
MICHAEL WARE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Wolf, what
U.S. military intelligence is expecting and what all
of us who have been here long enough are waiting for
is the fourth Ramadan offensive. What has always been
seen in Ramadan past is that the insurgency,
particularly the extremist Sunni religious groups,
raise the tempo and the ferocity of their attacks. So
the American military here on the ground is preparing
for what it calls a significant spike in violence
over Ramadan, Wolf.
BLITZER: And the whole nature of this spike -- when
you say the U.S. military, presumably the Iraqi
military, they're getting ready for it, how do they
get ready for it? Aren't they doing everything
already that they possibly can given their resources?
WARE: Well, yeah, the resources obviously are a huge
factor. There's clearly not enough American and/or
Iraqi troops to do the job that's ultimately needed
to be done, be that here in the capital, let alone
across the country itself.
But what we do see is that security procedures can be
ratcheted up at least one or two more notches.
There's normally imposed curfews, even more than we
currently live under now. There can be the placement
of additional check points. There can be increases in
patrolling and operational tempos. Essentially, they
try to close particularly the capital, but other hot
spots down even further than they can normally
sustain for any length of time -- Wolf?
BLITZER: You've spent a lot of time now in Iraq, over
the years, since the war. You've been embedded with
U.S. troops very recently. From your perspective, the
big picture, is the insurgency and the sectarian
violence getting more intense, more lethal, more
dangerous or is this overall security situation, from
the U.S. perspective, improving?
WARE: Wolf, there's absolutely no doubt about the
answer to that question. This country is spiraling
further and further into a cycle of both sectarian
violence and insurgent violence. And most alarmingly
about the nature of the insurgent violence is we're
seeing al-Qaeda in Iraq take more and more ground
within the insurgency itself. President Bush put Iraq
front and center in the global war on terror. Well
Osama bin Laden and his deputies have done the same.
On the ground here, we're seeing al-Qaeda in Iraq,
which actually represents only a small fraction of
the numbers on the ground but increasing its
influence and in fact its numbers -- Wolf?
BLITZER: And you know a lot about the insurgency, the
al-Qaeda operation in Iraq right now. Give us a
little flavor of what's happening?
WARE: What's happening is that we're seeing al-Qaeda
maintain its intensity. I mean, it's still the most
well-funded organization out there. It's still the
best structured. It still maintains the best secrecy
or operational security. And it still has the most
daring, most lethal, most unforgiving and most
headline capturing or sensational tactics.
They have an ideology and a platform that the rest of
the insurgency lacks. I mean, we've heard time and
time again from the Baathists and the nationalist
insurgencies about their attempts to develop a
political front.
Well, we have seen that fall over repeatedly.
Al-Qaeda does not lack that, so we're seeing them
gain even further momentum -- even in the wake of
their death of its leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi --
among the rest of the insurgency. We're seeing normal
Iraqi insurgents, if there is such a thing, people
who consider themselves secular nationalists being
herded towards al-Qaeda because of the pressure being
put on their groups by the American army. But also by
this sectarian strife and what they see is the
imposition by America of a pro-Iranian government. As
far as they see it, they are being left with no
choice but be pushed to the extreme. Wolf?
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BLITZER: Michael Ware reporting for us from
Baghdad.