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Length: 9:30
ANDERSON COOPER: The
president has his panel of experts to tell him what
the next move in Iraq should be. So do we tonight.
Joining me now here in Amman is CNN's Michael Ware;
from Washington, Retired Lieutenant Colonel Bob
McGinnis; and "New York Times" Chief Military
Correspondent Michael Gordon, who's also the
co-author of the book, "Cobra II," about the war in
Iraq.
All of you, thanks for being with us.
Michael, let's start with you. Staying the course in
Iraq. What does that look like six months, one year
from now?
MICHAEL WARE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, I'm sort of of
the mind of General Abizaid. He talked about the
Iranian revolutionary guards, Quds Forces plans, to
turn Iraq into a southern Lebanon-style situation
where you have a weak central government, where the
actual populous and the political landscape is
dominated by armed militias with foreign sponsors. At
the same time, within six to 12 months, we could see
the Islamic state of Iraq, the al Qaeda-created
situation, turn much of Western Anbar Province into
one big terrorist training camp.
COOPER: That's a reality? That could happen?
WARE: Absolutely. It's already underway now in bits
and pieces. Remember, the U.S. Marine general who
commands al-Anbar said not so long ago he does not
have enough troops to win against the al Qaeda-led
insurgency. So that's entirely up for grabs.
COOPER: Michael Ware, how -- al-Maliki, the prime
minister, how much does his power depend upon Muqtada
al-Sadr at this point?
WARE: Well, that's the man who put the prime minister
in power, this anti-American rebel cleric. So he
certainly has a huge political debt owing to Muqtada
al-Sadr. So he is caught between a rock and a hard
place.
He has the U.S. administration pressing down upon him
here in this capital as we stand tonight, demanding
results. Yet, Muqtada, who is writing the checks
politically, is demanding something else entirely.
I mean really, let's look at Nouri al-Maliki's
government. Does it really exist? It's not much more
than an apparition beyond his office and the office
of the national security advisor. Beyond that, it is
just an alignment of largely Iranian-backed Shia
militias.
COOPER: So are fewer troops the answer? With me again
to discuss the options are CNN's Michael Ware,
Retired Lieutenant Colonel Bob McGinnis and "New York
Times" Chief Military Correspondent Michael Gordon.
Michael Ware, let's start with you, "New York Times"
Columnist Thomas Friedman said Iraq is so broken -- I
want to get this quote right -- "so broken it can't
even have a proper civil war." What does it take for
the U.S. to start to be able to withdraw?
WARE: Well, a couple of things, I suspect. One is
either get serious about fighting this war. And for
political constraints, the military has not really
waged this campaign. They don't have the troop
numbers to occupy the country or to fight all the
enemies they face. There is as many as four wars
going on at once here. The terrorist war with al
Qaeda, the Sunni insurgent war, the civil war and the
undeclared covert war with Iran. Now 144,000 troops
is simply not enough to do that.
The alternative is, if you want to start pulling
troops out, you got to start giving some things away.
And by and large, that means conceding regional power
to Iran and to a lesser extent al Qaeda.
COOPER: Michael Ware, the president recently
indicating that al Qaeda -- in his opinion, al Qaeda
is sort of behind all of this in Iraq. Is that true?
WARE: Well, to an extent. I mean, what we are seeing
now, this civil war, and let's not mess about with
this, that is clearly what it is.
COOPER: No doubt about it in your opinion?
WARE: Absolutely no doubt whatsoever. No matter what
criteria you apply, no matter what definition you
turn to, all the elements are found on the ground in
Iraq.
This is the greatest legacy of the deceased al Qaeda
leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. In 2003 he mapped it
out. He said I'm going to create a sectarian war.
We've now seen hardline Iranian elements latch on to
that, see moments to capitalize, and they are
pressing their advantage as well.
So yeah, this clearly is by design and this is
Zarqawi's legacy.
COOPER: Politically speaking, the idea of more troops
in Iraq is risky. But as a military option, the
question is would an overpowering force be the
answer? Let's get it to our panel -- CNN's Michael
Ware, Retired Lieutenant Colonel Bob McGinnis and
"New York Times" Chief Military Correspondent Michael
Gordon.
Michael Ware, can more troops in Iraq make a
difference?
WARE: Well, it depends on what your outcomes are. But
if it's in terms of creating a secure state that can
protect its own borders, does not harbor terrorists,
and is in an alliance or a friendly relation with its
neighbors, then, I think yes, that is when more
troops can come into play.
As you pull out more troops, each of those factors
deteriorates further and further.
COOPER: And Michael Ware, I guess one of the
questions is, how much of the current insurgency is
being motivated by the presence of the U.S. If U.S.
forces -- I mean, there are those who argue if U.S.
forces left, then some of the motivation of the
insurgency disappears.
WARE: Well, certainly. That's one of the principle
arguments that senior British commanders have applied
for the south. They say that their very presence is
provoking more attacks. Yet, look at the south. The
Sunnis claim that the Brits have made an
accommodation with the militias and their Iranian
sponsors. For the appearance of stability, the Brits
have seceded power to these militias, so attacks seem
much lower. But elsewhere, we see that there's simply
not enough troops.
I mean, let's take for example al-Anbar Province.
With this bizarre unnatural focus on Baghdad, keeping
troops to a bare minimum on what President Bush calls
the center of the global war on terror, the al Qaeda
frontline, how much oxygen is that giving al Qaeda to
foster and grow?
COOPER: Once again, we turn to our panel. CNN's
Michael Ware, Retired Lieutenant Colonel Bob
McGinnis, and "New York Times" Chief Military
Correspondent Michael Gordon.
Is there reason to believe that dividing Iraq would
work?
WARE: Not necessarily so. That's certainly something
that's being pushed by hardline Shia elements. And
that's certainly something Tehran would like to see.
That would give them a stranglehold over the oil-rich
south. The Kurds in their semiautonomous region to
the north, they virtually have a separate state by
default anyway.
Where the crunch will come? With the Sunnis in the
west. There's no resources. There's oil in the north
for the Kurds and oil in the south for the Shia, but
there is nothing for the Sunni. Now, that's sure to
inflame tensions.
COOPER: That is the startling statistic. Militias
have penetrated some 70 percent of the Iraqi police.
And given how vital the Iraqi security forces are for
the country, it is difficult to imagine any new
strategy for the war working if the enemy is
everywhere.
There are tough decisions for the president, Congress
and tough decisions for our guests again.
CNN's Michael Ware joins us now. Retired Lieutenant
Colonel Bob McGinnis and "New York Times" Chief
Military Correspondent Michael Gordon.
How has al-Sadr, Michael Ware, become so powerful?
WARE: Well, it's a number of factors. One is family
ties. Both his father and his uncle are legendary
figures.
COOPER: So he's got the name.
WARE: In the Shia, Islamic movement. Absolutely. The
other thing is he is enormously popular. He is
somebody who did not leave Iraq under Saddam. He
weathered the storm. He cloaks himself in the garb of
an Islamic nationalist and that has broad appeal.
COOPER: But he is a relatively -- he's a relatively
low level cleric, though, in terms of the hierarchy?
WARE: Look, it's got very little to do with his
religious standing. It's more about his popular
appeal. The street loves him. And then, the American
forces effectively made a martyr out of him. And in
the massive engagements with his forces in 2004,
whilst technically the U.S. military won those
encounters, politically, it was spun that it was
Muqtada's men who won it.
COOPER: No easy options.
Michael Gordon, Lieutenant Colonel McGinnis and
Michael Ware, I appreciate you joining us. Thanks
guys.
We'll have more of this special edition of 360 in a
moment. Stay with us.