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SUZANNE MALVEAUX: As
President Bush touts success against enemies in Iraq,
a tragedy shows terrorists are still successful in
their deadly goals. In Iraq, a key Sunni sheikh was
assassinated by a roadside bomb. He had worked with
the United States to fight al Qaeda in the Anbar
Province and the White House believes Al Qaeda
exacted revenge, blaming the group for his death.
President Bush met with the sheikh just 10 days ago,
during his Iraq trip.
Our CNN's Michael Ware is in Baghdad -- Michael, the
administration is calling it this unfortunate and
outrageous act here. This seems to me -- it seems
like it would definitely show the administration,
however, that it's vulnerable in some ways, that it's
dangerous to do business with -- the business of the
United States.
MICHAEL WARE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, this is the
situation, Suzanne -- welcome to Iraq. If you trade
with the occupier, as the Americans are fairly and
squarely seen here, then you are taking certain
inherent risks. And that's on the Sunni and Shia
divide of this war. I mean, this is why translators
who work for the Americans are being executed in
their homes.
Now, today's assassination of Sheikh Sattar Abu
Reesha -- he was the head of what's known as the
Anbar Salvation Council. This is the front that was
founded last year by a U.S. Army brigade, harnessing
the energy of these small tribes, plucking Sheikh
Sattar from obscurity -- I mean he's really not a big
player out in Western Iraq -- and using him as the
catalyst to bring in the Baathist insurgents, those
who commanded Saddam's army and intelligence
apparatus, to try and get them to come in, join the
fight not only against Al Qaeda, but also to pressure
the Maliki government, which is dragging its feet and
is against reconciliation and to use them as a hedge
against Iran.
Now, no one has claimed responsibility for this
afternoon's roadside bomb assassination. It could be
inter-factional fighting or it could be a tribal
dispute. However, for now, it bears all of the
hallmarks of Al Qaeda in Iraq. They have been
slaughtering these sheikhs and anyone involved in
this program. There's been an endless raft of
assassination. They have used car bombs, bus bombs,
suicide chest vest bombers, even chlorine gas bombs
to strike at these tribes and Sunni insurgents
working with the Americans.
Sheikh Sattar was only the cosmetic face, a symbolic
figure and his death, though tragic, I do not think,
will arrest the momentum that we now see. The Sunni
insurgents have the Americans at the negotiating
table where they want them. The Americans have the
Sunnis helping them with Al Qaeda and with Iran.
I don't think it's in anyone's interests right now to
see that roll back. No one's interests, except,
perhaps, Tehran -- Suzanne.
MALVEAUX: Well, Michael, what does this mean, though,
for the administration?
They keep touting Anbar Province as this model of
success here. They've got the U.S. troops working
with these local sheikhs here against Al Qaeda.
Is this really a threat to that alliance?
What does this really say about this kind of success?
Is it really -- is it being overstated by the Bush
administration?
WARE: No, it's not being overstated. I mean this is
something that -- listen, Suzanne, to be honest, the
Baathists offered the Bush administration this almost
precise deal back in 2003. These guys do not like Al
Qaeda. But the enemy of my enemy is my friend. They
said, "We hate Al Qaeda. We hate Iran. We used to be
allies. We're willing to normalize relations. Bring
us into the fold." And the ideologues who were
running the occupation back in 2003 refused.
So we've seen four years of bloodletting to get to
this point. Now, once the Americans finally came
around and accepted the Baathists' offer, it has been
a success. It still is. And it will continue to be
so. I mean these Sunni insurgents who are now working
with America, assassinating Al Qaeda where they
sleep, they're not just going to give up all of a
sudden.
MALVEAUX: And Michael...
WARE: Sheikh Sattar was not their boss.
MALVEAUX: Put this in a bigger context.
Is this the exception or is this the rule here when
you talk about Anbar Province and the progress that's
being made?
Because, obviously, it's Sunni against Sunni. There's
not Sunni and Shia the way we see in the rest of the
country, the sectarian violence.
Can this model be replicated elsewhere?
WARE: No. Well, the model is spreading. We're seeing
it now being tinkered with in Diyala Province, just a
little bit to the north of the capital here, a much
more complex environment, where you have Sunni and
Shia and Kurds mixed in. We're also seeing it work,
to some greater effect, in other almost purely Sunni
provinces.
Now you can't just transplant this model. This is not
the Bush administration's key to a golden success.
However, the principle, the concept, can be applied.
Essentially, this is harnessing Iraqi secular
nationalists -- the people the Bush administration
abandoned almost four-and-a-half years ago. So to the
south, this could still work in Shia areas if they
look to the tribes to oust the Islamic parties -- the
Shia version of Al Qaeda -- Suzanne.
MALVEAUX: Michael Ware, thank you so much.
Michael Ware in Baghdad.
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WOLF BLITZER: As the
president prepares to deliver his important message
on Iraq, insurgents had a devastating message of
their own today. The White House says it believes al
Qaeda in Iraq is to blame for the assassination of a
prominent Sunni sheik, who supported the fight
against al Qaeda.
It calls the death of Sheik Abdul Sattir Abu Risha an
unfortunate and outrageous act. He was targeted in a
bombing in Anbar Province 10 days after he took part
in a meeting there with President Bush. CNN's Michael
Ware has been on the ground in Iraq since the
beginning of this war.
All along, he's brought all of us the most direct,
the clearest picture of what is really happening on
the ground. He is joining us tonight from Baghdad.
Michael, let's talk a little bit first of all about
the assassination of this sheik. This is a
significant development and it does send a powerful
message to everyone.
MICHAEL WARE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: It does. I mean this
is -- you know, let me say from the outset, Wolf,
there has been no claim of responsibility. We can't
rule out this is interfactional or intertribal
fighting; however, right now the hallmarks do bear
the signature of al Qaeda in Iraq. They have been
assassinating any sheik, any insurgent leader who is
prepared to work with the occupation, the U.S.
forces. Sheik Sattir has been the public face of
that.
Many people believe this was only an unfortunate
matter of time, his tragic assassination. He was
killed this afternoon by a bomb planted right outside
his house. Now what we see is that he is the cosmetic
face. He is what America has plucked from obscurity
about a year ago and put forward as this movement, to
bring in the Sunni Baath insurgency.
And that has succeeded, not just against al Qaeda,
but with the Iraqi government and against Iran. But
his death is not going to change anything as sad and
as tragic it is. It's a symbolic strike. Yes, it's a
real statement, 10 days after shaking hands with
President Bush, but I really don't think it's going
to arrest the momentum that has been built up behind
the Sunni insurgency now aligning with the U.S.
forces -- Wolf.
BLITZER: When we listen to you, Michael, as we have
over these past four years since this war started, we
went through today some of your assessments over
these years, your conversations with me here in THE
SITUATION ROOM. I want to play a few clips of what
you said during this period. Listen to this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP -- October 26, 2006)
WARE: There was much talk early on in the mission
about achieving set numbers for the Iraqi security
force, expecting a trained and equipped 300-plus
thousand would be able to handle the situation. Well,
we're now within a whisper of achieving that number,
and the situation remains a disaster.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP -- January 25, 2007)
While we see an influx or as the administration calls
it a surge of American troops into Baghdad, that's
going to change the nature of the battle in the
capital. Will it destroy the enemy? No. It may
displace the enemy or force them to adapt and change
their tactics.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP -- July 2, 2007)
General Petraeus is going to have a big mix of
conflicting data. He is not going to deliver a
miracle. The best he can say is, we see signs it
could work, give us more time.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BLITZER: All right. Tonight, the president will say
that by next summer, 30,000 U.S. troops will be back
home, bringing it down from 160's down to the 130's.
What will that do to the insurgency, Michael?
WARE: Not a great deal at all, Wolf. I mean, we're
returning to status quo. Let's face facts. I mean,
President Bush's address tonight is all about
formality, isn't it? I mean, we have heard from
General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker. President
Bush is going to endorse their recommendations.
Simply, this is a return to a situation that any
pragmatist before the surge pretty much knew we were
going to end up with.
You know, I've said it before, I've said it again.
Even if America wants to leave Iraq, I'm sorry folks,
it cannot. There actually are consequences to
invading this country and upsetting the power balance
here in the Middle East and you're now going to have
to pay for them. And that's going to involve a
significant American presence in this country for the
foreseeable future, no matter which way you break it
down.
So what we're now hearing is the president endorsing
a policy that essentially says, okay, we started with
130,000-odd troops. We surged with 30,000. Let's face
facts. The surge wasn't the success it was planned to
be. But it did turn out to be a success, there was
success in areas that were not expected.
They're now cashing in those chips, capitalizing on
that success, and that means that even though they
don't have the money or the troops to support the
surge anyway, they can at least let it peter out. And
return to what we had before. The same before that
wasn't containing al Qaeda, that wasn't blocking
Iran, and wasn't bringing this country to any kind of
stability nor was it stabilizing the region. I don't
think that that's going to change, Wolf.
BLITZER: All right. Michael, stand by. You're going
to be with us as we continue to go toward the
president's address to the nation tonight -- Michael
Ware reporting, as he always does, from Baghdad.
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WOLF BLITZER: CNN's
Michael Ware has been on the ground in Iraq since the
beginning of the war. All along, he's brought us a
direct and clear picture of what's really happening
on the ground.
He's joining us once again from Baghdad.
Give us your reaction. When you hear the president
making those statements over these past four years,
and you have been in Iraq all of this time, what goes
through your mind, Michael?
MICHAEL WARE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, that's a tough
question, Wolf.
The first thing that goes through my mind is that I
just know this war is not going anywhere. And this
administration has either been fooling itself or it's
been fooling the American public, or perhaps a mix of
both, from the beginning. The horror is going to
continue.
And America has committed itself by the invasion and
the astronomical blunders of the first years of this
war to a course of action from which, I'm sorry, it
can't shy away. This is an al Qaeda blooding ground
and training ground, whether you like it or not. It
was not before. They might be under pressure, but
this is an organization that lives for pressure.
This is now territory of expanded Iranian influence.
And this, as Ambassador Crocker and the prime
minister of this country himself both accept, is a
failed state. You have, according to American
intelligence, proxy wars being fought here. And now
people want to just walk away? I'm sorry. It doesn't
work like that.
And nothing that the president is saying comes as a
surprise to me, and all that adds up to me is that
the horror will continue -- Wolf.
BLITZER: You have met with these insurgents who are
fighting U.S. troops, the Iraqi troops. How are they
going to react when they hear that 30,000 American
troops will be out by next summer, bringing the
number from 160,000-odd down to 130,000-odd number of
U.S. troops in Iraq? What will the insurgents do in
reaction?
WARE: Wolf, I don't think they will blink an eye. To
be honest, like you and I have discussed before, this
is merely a return to the status quo. The insurgents
know this territory. They know what it's like to have
only 130,000 U.S. troops here. They know what it's
like to have a crippled, sectarian, corrupt, killing,
failing Iraqi security force.
They know what it's like to have a dismal state. They
know what it's like to have foreign backers. They
know what it's like to be countering Iran, or, if
they're Shia militias, working with Iran, against
U.S. interests.
This is something they will be most comfortable with,
most ready for. And as we have seen time and time and
time again, this conflict, like all others, simply
transforms, mutates, redefines itself, and the
insurgents will just continue doing that until this
is over -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Michael Ware, don't leave. We're going to be
watching this speech together, and you're going to be
here in THE SITUATION ROOM with us.
Michael Ware is our man in Baghdad.