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Length: 8:08
ANDERSON COOPER: While
the debate over Iraq rages on the Senate floor, U.S.
commanders in Iraq say they are bracing for an
offensive by insurgents, possibly on the scale of the
Tet Offensive in Vietnam. We're going to get to that
in a moment.
First, "Keeping Them Honest," a closer look at this
NIE report on al Qaeda. You just heard how Democrats
and Republicans are spinning it.
And joining me now is CNN terrorism analyst Peter
Bergen, CNN's Michael Ware, and retired U.S. General
David Grange.
Michael, the Bush White House is now portraying the
fight in Iraq as a fight between the U.S. and al
Qaeda. Let's talk reality. We know al Qaeda in Iraq
is responsible for some of the high-profile attacks.
But are they really the biggest enemy we now face in
Iraq?
MICHAEL WARE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: No, not by a long
shot, Anderson.
And the administration trying to spin that is just --
you know, they're trying to play the American public.
They're trying to equate Iraq with those who attacked
America. That's precisely President Bush's words, but
it's somewhat misleading.
If you look at the entire body of the insurgency --
the people who are blowing up U.S. convoys, firing
mortars, firing rockets, they're the ones in the
ambush attacks. They're the ones who are in the
small-arms-fire gun battles with U.S. troops -- al
Qaeda would be lucky to make up 3 percent of that, 3
percent of the total insurgency.
Yes, al Qaeda has a monopoly on the spectacular car
bombs. But three U.S. troops are dying thereabouts
every day, and al Qaeda is responsible for very few
of those -- Anderson.
COOPER: Peter, Michael referenced it. We also heard
it in a sound bite from President Bush earlier in the
program. The White House repeatedly is now saying --
this is their new message -- that the people who
attacked us on 9/11 are the same ones we're fighting
now in Iraq.
The group, obviously, al Qaeda in Iraq, did not exist
before this war. Are they the same thing? Are they
the same people as al Qaeda, as Osama bin Laden's al
Qaeda, as Zawahri's al Qaeda? Or are there real
differences between these two groups, al Qaeda and al
Qaeda in Iraq, that are important to know about when
we're trying to understand who this enemy is?
PETER BERGEN, CNN TERRORISM ANALYST: Well,
interestingly President Bush kind of slightly
rephrased the way that he put this. He said now in
the clip that we just played that the people -- al
Qaeda in Iraq are people who have sworn allegiance to
Osama bin Laden. And Osama bin Laden attacked us on
9/11.
Well, that is -- that is more true than his previous
statement that we're being attacked on 9/11 by the
same people who are attacking us in Iraq, because, of
course, al Qaeda in Iraq didn't exist until 2004,
when it formally changed its name from Tawhid to al
Qaeda in Iraq. It's now the Islamic State of Iraq.
It is a group, as -- as Michael has pointed out, that
is relatively small. On the other hand, it's done
disproportionately -- the largest number of suicide
attackers in Iraq are all foreigners. There have
actually been quite an interesting number of studies
which demonstrate how few Iraqis are involved in the
suicide attacks.
And it's the suicide attacks, of course, that have
had -- that sparked the civil war, that got the
United Nations to withdraw, and that made Iraq a much
more dangerous place. So, despite their small number,
they have had a disproportionate strategic effect on
the ground.
It's interesting in the NIE that -- the National
Intelligence Estimate says that it's possible al
Qaeda in Iraq might try and attack the United States.
I think that there's a long way off before that
happens.
But al Qaeda in Iraq has attacked three
American-owned hotels in Jordan in 2005. I think,
when we know more about the attacks in London and
Glasgow, we will find that the Iraqi doctor involved
in those attacks had some links with al Qaeda in
Iraq. So, they have demonstrated some interest in
attacking outside the country, outside Iraq, already
-- Anderson.
COOPER: General Grange, we have talked before about
how this is a learning enemy that we're facing. Their
tactics evolve and are being exported.
To what extent has this war in Iraq been a training
ground for extremists, perfecting tactics which are
now being exported to Afghanistan, and Jordan, as
Peter talked about, Britain, and possibly here in
America?
BRIGADIER GENERAL DAVID GRANGE (RET.), CNN MILITARY
ANALYST: Well, I believe so.
I mean, not only in Iraq, but in Afghanistan and
places like Chechnya, and elsewhere, anywhere there's
conflict, the forces that are there are going to
learn new tactics, procedures, techniques against
their foe. They learn new asymmetric means to counter
a more powerful force.
And it's the same thing for the Army of the United
States or the Iraqi army. They learn on -- in this
battleground as well. I mean, regrettably, battle
really trains forces to be very competent. And, so,
if they're fighting in Iraq, al Qaeda will improve
their skills. There's no doubt about it.
COOPER: General Grange, there are those who say,
well, look, we're fighting them over there so that we
don't have to fight them here at home. If they are
already exporting what they have learned in Iraq, is
that statement true?
GRANGE: Well, sure. They're going to learn these
techniques in camps somewhere. Whether it's in Iraq
or somewhere else, this is an enemy that does not
like us. They're going to come after us.
We just gave them an opportunity to assemble in Iraq.
I kind of like the idea they assemble in Iraq,
because there's more of them there to take down,
instead of hunting them around the world of global
operations, which are very difficult. Here, we have a
license to kill or capture. Many other places, we do
not. And, so, I don't think it's a bad thing that
they're assembling in Iraq.
COOPER: But, Peter, as you and I have seen in
Afghanistan -- we have been there now together twice
this -- in the last nine months or so -- they are
already going to Afghanistan, and spreading what they
have learned in Iraq in Afghanistan.
BERGEN: Indeed.
I mean, there's been people going from Afghanistan to
Iraq and coming back with on-the-job training. And
it's interesting: the suicide attacks in Afghanistan
didn't start when the U.S.-led invasion happened in
2001. They really took off in the 2004 time period,
basically learning from the Iraqi insurgency and
copycatting the Iraqi insurgency.
We have now seen suicide attacks quintuple last year.
It's because Iraqi-style insurgency tactics work in
Afghanistan in a way that they have also worked in
Iraq. So, certainly, there's been -- I would differ
slightly with the general, who I greatly admire, in
the sense that I think the Iraqi war has sort of
amplified the jihadi problem.
Of course it already existed, but it has been more of
a major irritant. And, in a study that I did with an
NYU colleague, Paul Cruickshank, we found a sevenfold
increase in jihadist terrorist attacks around the
world following the invasion of Iraq compared to the
period after the 9/11 attacks.
Now, of course, a lot of that was in Iraq, a lot of
that in Afghanistan, but also around the Arab world,
and, of course, as we have seen in Europe, with the
attacks in Madrid and London.
COOPER: Well, let me get Michael in.
Michael, do you -- I mean, you have spent a lot of
time getting close as any -- as close as any reporter
can to interviewing jihadists. You have been there
really since the get-go when this war began.
Has Iraq created jihadists who wouldn't have become
jihadists anyway?
WARE: Oh, absolutely.
I mean, the whole notion of better to fight them over
there than over here, or let's bring them in like a
honey pot and draw them to Iraq and kill them, is
absolutely ludicrous. In fact, it's so ludicrous,
it's downright dangerous, because what they're doing
is, they're creating entire generation of jihadis
that did not exist.
And it's providing the inspiration and motivation to
create whole waves of more jihadi who don't even have
to come here to be inflamed by Iraq. So, Iraq has
been a total disaster, in terms of limiting the
number of jihadis on the planet.
COOPER: General Grange, I want to give you a chance
to respond to those comments.
GRANGE: No, I think that Iraq has multiplied
jihadists. There's no doubt about it.
What I'm saying is that this movement is going to
come after America, whether we're in Iraq or not. I
mean, I just think it will. Now, maybe it's been
multiplied quickly, the numbers that volunteer,
because of Iraq, no doubt about it.
But, look, they have a great brand. They have a great
tagline. They're wonderful in the virtual arena. And
they know how to market what they want to do. And
they're going to do that somewhere in this world --
there's no doubt in my mind -- in multiple places.
And, so, we're going to have to take them on
somewhere.
Whether we like Iraq or not, it's there. It was
created. It's caused a lot more to come to the plate.
But, I mean, we're going to have to do it.
COOPER: Marketing terror. It is a brave new world.
General Grange, appreciate your expertise.
Peter Bergen, as well, Michael Ware, as well, thank
you very much.