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Length: 4:10
GEORGE NEGUS: This is
Michael Ware speaking to us last night from Baghdad.
Michael, for your sins you've been there in Baghdad
more or less since the outset of war back in 2003.
How would you describe the situation on the ground in
Iraq from a US perspective right now?
MICHAEL WARE, CNN BAGHDAD CORRESPONDENT: Well,
George, it's nothing short of dire. There's no other
way to describe it. Right now the US military is
adopting its new strategy and fighting for victory
but that victory is very narrowly defined. What we
are talking about is essentially just dampening down
the violence in the capital, Baghdad. The reason for
that being to give the political apparatus, this
so-called Iraqi government, a chance to breathe and
make political developments. But meanwhile the rest
of the country continues to be aflame as does the
capital itself. We're seeing -- this is becoming a
military sinkhole, costing the US around $2 million a
week, on average something like three American lives
a day. This whole war has radicalised this region
instead of democratising it. And we are seeing the
enemies that America came to target, principally Iran
and al-Qaeda, emboldened as a result of this war and
not weakened. And they consider it a good month when
only 1200 tortured and executed bodies are found on
the streets of Baghdad. So it's pretty dire, George.
GEORGE NEGUS: Well, it has been six months of the
so-called surge now by the US. Would you say the
conditions in Iraq are any better or worse?
MICHAEL WARE: Well, the surge has been a slow wind-up
and it finally came to its peak a few weeks ago once
all the troops were here and the US launched a series
of massive operations involving up to 50,000 combat
troops and assets. It;s essentially the largest
offensive since the invasion itself. Now, they're
trying to lock down the capital, that is having a
minimal effect. They're trying to cut off the
insurgents' supply lines. We have seen them attempt
that before. I expect it will be no more successful
than in the past. So the surge is having an impact
but is it turning the tide of the war, is it buying
that time for national reconciliation that the US
Administration is desperately seeking? No, in those
senses, it is not achieving that.
GEORGE NEGUS: Many of course are saying that if
America pulls out, is it ready to pay the price?
What's the price of pulling out, Michael?
MICHAEL WARE: You will see an expansion of Iranian
influence. Already Iran has greater sway over the
government here in Baghdad than do the Americans. You
will see that consolidated. You'll see Iraqi Shia
militia with even increased support, funding and
training than they are getting now from the Iranian
armed forces. At the same time, you can't see
America's Sunni Arab allies like Egypt and Saudi
Arabia and Jordan sit back and watch the advancement
of a regional power they consider to be hostile. You
could see regional skirmishes, if not border-scale
conflicts. And one thing is for sure the blood will
flow here in Iraq. Now, any of these factors could
start to happen as soon as America gets below a
certain threshold of troop levels. That will further
destabilise the region rather than stabilising it
like the war was supposed to do. And it will ever
weaken a sense of American power and American
interests in this region rather than strengthen them.
So they're the prices America is going to have to pay
if it wants to pull out its troops at this moment.
GEORGE NEGUS: Surge or no surge, Michael, where to
from here?
MICHAEL WARE: The coalition still isn't fighting this
war. The troop levels they currently have aren't
enough to do what they set out to do. And we're not
seeing the balance provided in terms of real economic
aid, real reconstruction. We're not seeing that
all-encompassing holistic approach that
counter-insurgencies desperately need for them to be
won.
GEORGE NEGUS: Just in the last few days, the US
commander in Iraq - General Petraeus - put a minimum
of 10 years on the insurgency. Are you as pessimistic
as him?
MICHAEL WARE: No insurgency has never been defeated
by less. This is a very slow fight here in Iraq. And
we are seeing it metastasizing, constantly morphing,
reinventing itself. This war is going nowhere soon,
George.