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PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: Well, tonight, with the Iraq
war now going into its fifth year, we're bringing the
search for an endgame out in the open.
Here is a range of possibilities: U.S. troops leave
as Iraq sinks into chaos. Our forces stay for 10
years or more as an occupation force. Or we
accomplish the mission, defeat the insurgents, and
leave behind a peaceful and prosperous Iraq.
Today's news doesn't provide any answers. The
Pentagon says two more U.S. soldiers have been
killed. And there are reports that about 40 Iraqis
also lost their lives.
After four years of that kind of unrelenting
violence, editorials and commentaries across the
Middle East today are asking, when will we see the
new peaceful Iraq? How will it all end?
To help explore that question tonight, from London,
our chief international correspondent, Christiane
Amanpour, Michael Ware in Baghdad. And Wolf Blitzer
joins us from THE SITUATION ROOM in Washington.
Michael, I'm going start with you tonight.
Four years from now, how many U.S. troops do you
think will be on duty?
MICHAEL WARE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, that depends
on what America is prepared to pay as the price for
peace in this region. If America is willing to cut
the deals that it's going to have to cut with Iran,
with Syria, with the Baathists, with the insurgents,
then you could have only a nominal or token presence
here, if any troops at all.
Essentially, America would have to surrender its
complete mission, give up on this failed hope of a
shining model democracy, and surrender power to, by
and large, its enemies. Then there won't be American
troops here. If, however, America does not want that,
wants more than that, then you're going to have to
keep troops here. And, arguably, you would have to
keep a heck of a lot more than you have got here now.
ZAHN: What kind of numbers are you talking about,
Michael?
WARE: Well, I mean, the generals were telling the
civilian commanders of this war before the invasion
that it would be hundreds of thousands.
But the American war machine is straining as it is.
You do not have those resources in men or machinery
anymore. So, to really occupy this country, America
would have to introduce a draft. That isn't going to
happen either. So, basically, you're going to be left
with doing the halfway option that you have been
fighting this war from the beginning, and it's going
to continue to fester, in one form or another, until
America relents on some front.
BLITZER: Christiane, where do you think Iraq stands
four years from now?
CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL
CORRESPONDENT: Well, you know, I think the beauty and
the significance of your question is that, frankly,
nobody knows. You can make some educated guesses, and
you can speculate.
The truth of the matter is, and the facts are, that
even the U.S. generals there have told us over the
last several years that it will take at least a dozen
years to tame an insurgency. That's just from the
textbooks on insurgencies in the past. So, that does
take a long time.
What we have seen over the last year, for instance,
also, is, we don't really know -- and it's
vacillating -- which is the more dominant now? Is it
the festering civil war? Is it the insurgency? Is it
back again to the civil war and back again to the
insurgency? That has been seesawing over this last
year. So, we don't know how that is going to shape
up.
And, also, who would have thought, when we were all
in Iraq four years ago, with the fall of Saddam
Hussein, after we had seen the quick military
victory, that the United States and its allies would
still be in an ongoing war now into its fifth year,
that none of the so-called milestones for success
would have actually cemented that success yet, that
there would be so many deaths, both on the American
forces' side and, of course, on the side of the Iraqi
civilians?
So, already, in the last four years, we have had
unpredictable reality there. So, it's unclear about
what's going to happen in the future.
ZAHN: Wolf, we spent many, many hours on the air
together as this war unfolded. I don't think anybody
ever predicted that Iraq would be where it is
tonight. But, given these numbers that I'm going to
put up on the screen with Iraqi attitudes towards
U.S. troops on their soil -- 78 percent of them
strongly oppose the presence of coalition forces in
Iraq; 51 percent of Iraqis view violence against U.S.
forces as acceptable -- then, how do you put any dent
in this insurgency movement?
WOLF BLITZER, HOST, "THE SITUATION ROOM": It's going
to be very, very hard. You have got a huge problem in
Iraq, not only with the ethnic tensions between the
Sunni and the Shia specifically, to the Kurds to a
certain degree as well, but you have got a situation
unfolding now where there's a lack of strong,
decisive political leadership.
Of that political leadership, you have a close
alliance, if you will, with Iran that's emerging
right now. Maybe 10 percent of the population of Iraq
has already fled or already been displaced over the
past four years, about two million refugees or so.
It's moving in the wrong direction. The American
public is going to get fed up, as you know, Paula,
unless things start moving in the right direction,
they see fewer Americans killed, and they see some
progress on the political front.
And, right now, clearly, that is not happening.
ZAHN: Michael Ware, you were saying how it's not
clear what kind of deals the United States would be
willing to cut with Iran, perhaps with Syria.
But, in the meantime, a lot of people are speculating
that what you might eventually see is a country
divided into three major sectarian groups.
WARE: Yeah, well, I mean, in effect, that's what's
emerging. If that is actually formalized, if America
partitions this country, then you can kiss goodbye to
the rest of the region. Turkey will be forced to act
militarily. Iran will certainly be pressing its
advantage militarily. And you will see America's Arab
allies -- from Saudi Arabia, to Jordan, to Egypt --
opening the floodgates of financial and military
support to the Sunnis in that minor partitioned part
of the country. And you will see al Qaeda reclaim the
territory it lost after Afghanistan.
ZAHN: Christiane, time for one final quick thought.
AMANPOUR: Well, clearly, for the United States, it's
a huge issue as well. And its challenge, as well,
over the next several years is to somehow mobilize to
regain what used to be a position of admiration and
influence in that part of the world.
I think the big cost of the Iraq war has been this
massive blow to the prestige and the influence and
the effect of this, of U.S. foreign policy in this
part of the world.
ZAHN: You all had very interesting perspectives.
Thank you, Christiane Amanpour, Michael Ware, Wolf
Blitzer. Appreciate your input.