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Length: 7:33
ANDERSON COOPER: Now,
Senator Lugar's switch comes at a time when this
administration, the White House, clearly seems to be
trying to backpedal from the benchmarks it widely
touted to win support of the so-called surge in U.S.
troops.
Remember, September, that was the month. September,
that was supposed to be the deadline for showing
progress. We heard it from the president, General
Petraeus, and others. Now the message seems to be
morphing. The date no longer seems so certain, at
least in the administration.
Take a look.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, JANUARY 12, 2007)
ROBERT GATES, SECRETARY OF DEFENSE: I don't think
anybody has a definite idea about how long a surge
would last. I think, for most of us, in our minds,
we're thinking of it as a matter of months, not 18
months or two years.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, APRIL 25, 2007)
MAJOR GENERAL WILLIAM CALDWELL, U.S. ARMY SPOKESMAN,
COALITION FORCES IN IRAQ: As General Petraeus has
said, some time in late August, early September, he
plans to come back and talk to the political
leadership in Washington, and give them his honest
assessment as to what's possible here in Iraq.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, JUNE 13, 2007)
TONY SNOW, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: What I would
suggest is, rather than -- it's sort of a pivotal
moment. It's a -- it is the first opportunity to be
able to take a look at what happens when you have you
got it up and running fully for a period of months.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, JUNE 16, 2007) GATES: I think we
will be some trends and be able to point in some
directions by September. The full impact of the surge
is really just beginning to be felt.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COOPER: So, sounds like they are changing the tune.
Just a week ago, on the Sunday talk show circuit,
General David Petraeus said that September would
provide a snapshot -- that's the word he used, a
snapshot -- of the situation in Iraq and the success
of the surge. A Polaroid, not a portrait, in other
words.
With those words in mind, I'm joined now by former
presidential adviser David Gergen in Boston and CNN's
Michael Ware in Baghdad, "Keeping Them Honest."
Michael, first of all, just this timeline. September
clearly was the date, months and months ago, many --
we were hearing on this side of the Atlantic about
when we would know. What are you hearing on the
ground there from military officials? Do they already
feel like they know how it's going?
MICHAEL WARE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: No.
In fact, indeed, Anderson, it's quite the opposite. I
mean, here on the ground, since the beginning of this
-- of the announcement of the surge, since the first
deployment of the troops, since General Petraeus and
his top-ranking commanders began dealing with the
journalists, with the media on the issue of the
surge, they have been downplaying the notion of
September.
They have been highlighting how illusory September
really is. I mean, remember, bear in mind the surge
troops have only now just arrived, within the last
couple of weeks. The surge troops have only now just
begun their first massive operation, indeed, the
largest operation involving U.S. forces since the
invasion itself.
So, in many regards, the surge has only now just
begun. So, they have been saying from the beginning,
"You have got to wait for the troops to get there.
You have got to give them time to act. And then we're
going to sit back and wait for the consequences to
flow." So, they have been saying, September, best
guess, all we will be able to say is if the strategy
is on track or not, not whether it's worked or not.
So, basically, General Petraeus is going to have so
many different pieces of data, so many different
opinions flying into him, he's just going to be on
gut instinct, quite frankly, come September.
COOPER: David Gergen, does it seem to you as if this
administration, though, is trying to backpedal on
this September date?
DAVID GERGEN, FORMER PRESIDENTIAL ADVISER: Sure. They
have been trying to downplay its significance to buy
themselves more time. The snapshot idea, -- you know,
"We will give you a snapshot and a part of a moving
picture" -- is obviously intended to give them more
time, until the spring, if they can get that.
But the speech by Senator Lugar tonight is a dramatic
break with the administration. Dick Lugar has been a
pillar of the foreign policy establishment in this
country now for a couple of decades, one of the most
respected members on either side of the aisle. His
voice carries enormous weight. And what he's
basically saying, Anderson, it's not a question just
of whether the surge may work in the short term or
not.
He's basically saying, given the political
fragmentation in Iraq, given the fact that the surge
will take a long time, regardless, and given the fact
that the politics in this country prevent us for
staying for the long haul, we have to face up to the
reality that if we hang in there, it's going to
diminish us as a world power on all sorts of other
fronts. It's really going to diminish our national
security, so that we have to change course in order
to preserve our strength as a great power.
He's not saying simply -- this is not simply about
the surge. It's an agonizing speech, which he's
obviously been thinking about a long time, that
breaks dramatically with where the administration is.
It has the same kind of weight as the Iraq Study
Group, in the sense it comes from such a person of
stature that it really begins to -- it does change
the discourse.
COOPER: Michael, this September benchmark was
designed to give the Iraqis cover for reconciling
political differences. The whole idea of this
so-called surge, or escalation, which is basically
what it is, was to improve the security situation, so
there could be political progress.
Have they made any political progress at this point?
WARE: No.
We know that they have stalled. And, to be honest,
here on the ground, there's absolutely no real
expectation that this so-called Maliki government --
because, indeed, it really isn't a government, it's
just a patchwork of opposing militias, almost none of
whom are loyal to Prime Minister Maliki -- were ever
going to meet these benchmarks.
Even if Prime Minister Maliki sincerely wants
reconciliation or to achieve political gains on any
of the other key fronts, he honestly doesn't have the
power to deliver. So, the concept that the surge
would buy him time, yes, that's certainly the way it
was sold. But, honestly, in realpolitik, there was
very little chance of that.
And the surge is one thing in achieving whatever
goals it is set out to achieve. Whether America can
win the war overall is a totally different question.
As a very senior officer said to me just the other
day, "It's time for America to start dumbing down its
notion of success in Iraq, because the picture people
have back home just simply is not going to achieve."
Nonetheless, pulling out is going to be such a
disservice to U.S. foreign policy and national
interests for generations to come, it's simply not an
option.
COOPER: And, David, for this administration, there is
no plan B.
GERGEN: That's exactly right.
And when you look at Senator Lugar's speech, he's not
saying, let's pull out. He is saying, let's downside.
And that's moving toward, in effect, a plan B. And
you can talk to people privately in the
administration -- I have in the last -- in recent
days -- there are serious people inside who are
beginning to think, yes, we do have to think through
a plan B.
What would it look like? Well, we might -- if we
downsize to, say, 75,000 troops, we might put one
large group, one contingent in the north, to make
sure the north doesn't erupt, the Kurdish area,
another in the south. And Baghdad would probably be
-- you know, we would be -- we would get off the
streets of Baghdad, and it would probably become
another Beirut, to the extent that it already isn't
there. Michael knows that so well.
But I think all the signs now point even more heavily
tonight that the military -- our U.S. military on the
ground does -- do not think that they can come back
and report in September that this has been an
astonishing success. This was all along was a Hail
Mary pass. And it's -- we are -- and what Senator
Lugar is saying is, let's wake up to reality and get
ready for that. Let's not get into a precipitous
withdrawal come September, October.
COOPER: A big development tonight.
David Gergen, appreciate it. Michael Ware, as well,
thank you very much, guys.