AC: "War doesn't wait for
elections."
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Length: 8:21
LARGE (97.0 MB)
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SMALL (10.3 MB)
Anderson Cooper asks Michael about today's
developments in the still-undecided Afghan
elections and whether another vote in two weeks is
even feasible. Anderson then has a discussion with
Paul Begala and Kevin Madden, but comes back to
Michael for the final word -- a point that Michael
has been making for weeks now.
ANDERSON
COOPER: Afghanistan's President Hamid Karzai caved
under extreme pressure today and agreed to take part
in a runoff vote next month.
U.S. Senator John Kerry has been in Kabul leaning
heavily on Karzai to concede he did not win the
August 20 election widely seen as fraudulent.
Yesterday, an independent review invalidated nearly a
third of the votes that Karzai got back in August.
So, now that he's finally admitted what seemed
obvious to a lot of people, what is to prevent the
fraud that derailed the August election from actually
happening again? And what is at stake for the U.S.?
Michael Ware joins us now. He's certainly spent a lot
of time in Afghanistan since 2001.
Can this vote even take place?
MICHAEL WARE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well...
COOPER: I mean, they're saying two weeks from now.
WARE: Yes, I know. It's a huge ask.
And, in fact, as the secretary-general of the United
Nations said, it's a huge challenge, just
logistically.
COOPER: Right.
WARE: I mean, the last election, there were 7,000
Afghan and international observers. You know, they're
now saying maybe we can get 5,000 together. And the
actual election workers, you have to gather them back
together. The U.N. and others have to pay for it. You
have got to get rid of those who were involved in the
fraud in the past. There's supposed to be
investigations into that. You've got to bring in new
people, retrain them.
COOPER: But they're saying, if it doesn't happen by
two weeks from now, then the snows are going to come.
WARE: You've got the snow.
COOPER: And bad weather is going to come into large
parts of the country.
WARE: That's right. So, there is an imperative. I
mean, timing is very important here, as with the
conflict, as with the war itself.
The snow in Afghanistan has to be seen to be
believed. And, you know, even the war itself grinds
to a virtual halt. So, holding an election in that
kind of a period is impossible.
COOPER: Clearly, there is a debate going on within
the Obama administration.
I want to play something that Rahm Emanuel said on
John King's show, "STATE OF THE UNION."
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, "STATE OF THE UNION WITH JOHN
KING")
RAHM EMANUEL, WHITE HOUSE CHIEF OF STAFF: It would be
reckless to make a decision on U.S. troop level if,
in fact, you haven't done a thorough analysis of
whether, in fact, there's an Afghan partner ready to
fill that space that the U.S. troops would create and
become a true partner in governing the Afghan
country.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COOPER: So, that makes it sound like Obama is -- the
Obama administration is going to wait.
But then you have Defense Secretary Gates coming
forward. He says -- and I quote -- "We're not just
going to sit on our hands waiting for the outcome of
this election and for the emergence of government in
Kabul."
WARE: Yes. It's -- it's hard to tell which way
they're going to go.
I mean, and what the chief of staff says, there is
some truth, and, yet, there is also some deviation
there. I mean, to a degree, it doesn't matter who the
government is. Whether it's Hamid Karzai returning or
Abdullah Abdullah, in many ways, in Afghan eyes, it
is one bunch of crooks vs. another.
Either way, that government, whatever form it takes,
is going to have to rely on America and its other
partners, like India, Iran, even China.
COOPER: If Abdullah...
WARE: So, it's going to need them.
COOPER: If Abdullah Abdullah comes in, though, does
he get rid of all the governors and stuff that Karzai
has appointed and put in new people?
WARE: Well, that's going to be something for Abdullah
Abdullah. And, yes, I'm sure there will be changes.
He will want to put his own imprint upon it.
But, in terms of the U.S. war-fighting effort, I
think this is just politically buying the
administration time.
COOPER: Right.
WARE: In terms of the strategy, in terms of the
fight, you don't need these two weeks, plus waiting
for the recount.
COOPER: Right.
WARE: You don't want these two weeks. You just want
to get on with the fight. War doesn't wait for
elections.
COOPER: Yes.
Michael Ware, appreciate it.
The Obama administration needs a credible partner in
Afghanistan. That's what they have been saying. So,
will this runoff, which Karzai is likely to win,
actually provide one?
Let's talk "Raw Politics" with CNN political
contributor Democratic strategist Paul Begala, also
Kevin Madden, former spokesman for Mitt Romney's
presidential campaign.
So, Paul, what about this? I mean, Rahm Emanuel
saying essentially the White House wants to hold off
a troop decision until the election is resolved.
Robert Gates is saying, that's not really practical
or sensible.
PAUL BEGALA, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Right. Mr.
Emanuel did not say, until the election. He said,
until we assess whether there is a credible partner.
In other words, can Hamid Karzai, who is both corrupt
and inept, emerge as somebody changed? Can he adapt?
I would say I'm a strong doubter of that. But he
didn't say we will wait until the election. I think
John Kerry actually said that over in Afghanistan,
who was doing great work for our country.
COOPER: But...
BEGALA: But what Mr. Emanuel said is, we have to have
a credible partner.
This was putting pressure on the Afghan government.
And I would note that within 24 hours of Mr.
Emanuel's comments, Karzai folded. So, it looks like
American pressure is having some effect.
COOPER: Kevin, though, I mean, Karzai has been in
power now for years. And over the last eight months
of the Obama administration, or however long it's
been, I mean, you would think by now they would know
whether or not he was a credible partner.
KEVIN MADDEN, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Well, right.
And, you know, I think it's a rather elusive goal,
trying to find political stability there, because I
think, for the last two years -- and you can even
argue that for maybe the last 10 to 100 years --
there's been -- you know, Afghanistan has essentially
been a political tinderbox. They have had rife
corruption, both in the government, as well as in any
sort of regional authorities that they have across
the country.
So, you know, the president is in a difficult
position, where he's looking to get as much leverage
as possible, but he's increasingly setting himself up
for elusive goals. And the most important thing right
now that the troops on the ground need, that American
security needs is somebody to make a very firm
decision and give the mission a clear direction
there.
COOPER: Paul, do you think the president risks, you
know, incurring more criticism, obviously from
Republicans but just from voters out there in general
by not making a decision?
BEGALA: Yes, but I think that's a short-term risk.
There's no doubt that this very public debate and the
time that he is taking is causing -- is taking its
toll. You're getting more and more people wondering,
is Barack Obama tough enough? Is he decisive enough?
I suspect he weighs that against, though, the
long-term implications of making the wrong decision
here. So I think he's taking a short-term hit to get
the long-term piece right.
But to me, the key question -- I have no idea what
the key question is to the president, okay? But to me
the key question is that will they ever have a
credible partner? Kevin is right. This government has
been corrupt since day one. It's been inept from day
one. And I guess I would take one or the other. I
guess I could take a corrupt government if they were
capable, or maybe a capable government that -- but
this is the problem.
If the McChrystal report is right -- and I think it
is -- we have to have a government of the Islamic
Republic of Afghanistan that is credible and
effective. General McChrystal uses that acronym,
GIROA, which is Government of the Islamic Republic of
Afghanistan, 99 times in a 66-page report. That's how
critical it is. And I've got to tell you, I don't see
it. I don't know if you do, Kevin.
COOPER: Well, Kevin, that's what key -- that's the
key to a counterinsurgency. You talk to anybody, any
expert on the subject will tell you, you know, it has
to be in support of a government that people can get
behind and believe.
We were just there on the ground. And what the
Marines are trying to do is trying to convince local
people in these outlying village that the government
actually cares about them and is going to help them
in their lives. And, yet, there's no evidence. And
there hasn't been any evidence of that for eight
years now.
MADDEN: That's right. And that is, again, the hard
task. I think one of the problems is that how does --
I'm by far not a policy expert when it comes to the
military decision that should be made on the ground,
but how is it that you support the political
decisions with a very clear message?
One of the big problems with the president's
deliberative style here is that the deliberation is
starting to look like both timidity and hesitation.
And that timidity and that hesitation is emboldening
many of our enemies on the ground.
If we look back at Iraq and the surge there, that
sent -- that surge in Iraq sent a very clear message
to the insurgents there that we were not leaving and
that we had a very clear message. And that helped the
military success of that operation.
BEGALA: But the surge followed the Sunni awakening.
Iraqis in Iraq decided that they were going to take
on al Qaeda, whereas they had not in the past. That
turn, even more than the American troop presence, is
what turned Iraq around. And I don't see any Sunni
awakening in Afghanistan.
COOPER: Michael Ware is nodding -- Michael.
WARE: Yes. His point is absolutely valid. But the
opportunity for an "Afghan awakening" has presented
itself.
A lot of the tribes in the south, a lot of the former
veterans of the Soviet war who have been sitting back
or have been neglected by the Karzai government or
others are now stepping up and saying, "We're ready
to be those militia."
COOPER: So that's a possibility?
WARE: That's a distinct possibility. And Karzai's
brother, who is in Kandahar in the south, is already
running a pilot program, and the military's watching
it closely.
COOPER: All right. We're going to have to leave it
there. Michael Ware, Kevin Madden, appreciate it.
Paul Begala, as well.